周二，印度卢比兑美元汇率创下历史新低，至88.5左右，受到美国高额关税和签证费上涨的压力。除了比其他亚洲国家面临的关税更高的关税外，该货币现在还面临着特朗普总统对新H-1B签证收取10万美元费用的影响，2024年发放的近40万份签证中，印度人约占71%。此举增加了印度IT服务业和汇款流量的风险，同时也打击了投资者的信心。交易员表示，印度储备银行可能通过国有银行进行干预，以遏制进一步的损失。此外，预计9月至10月的政策会议将降息25个基点。印度国家银行表示，温和的通货膨胀使降息成为“最佳选择”，预计CPI将保持在4%或更低，这加强了尽早采取行动的必要性。与此同时，随着官员们继续推进在纽约陷入僵局的谈判，市场关注着美印贸易谈判的进展。
The Indian rupee breached another all-time low to around 88.5 per dollar on Tuesday, pressured by steep US tariffs and higher visa fees. In addition to tariffs that are steeper than those faced by other Asian countries, the currency is also now contending with the fallout of President Trump’s $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, with Indians accounting for about 71% of the nearly 400,000 issued in 2024. The move raises risks for India’s IT services sector and remittance flows, while also dampening investor confidence. Traders said the RBI likely intervened via state-run banks to stem further losses. Additionally, expectations are also building for a 25 bps cut in the Sept-Oct policy meeting. The State Bank of India said benign inflation makes a rate cut the “best possible option,” with CPI projected to stay near 4% or lower, reinforcing the case for early action. Meanwhile, markets watched progress in US-India trade talks as officials continue to advance stalled negotiations in New York.
