国际货币基金组织（IMF）已将印度2025/26财年的增长预测从6.4%上调至6.6%，因为该国强劲的增长势头预计将抵消美国对印度商品征收高额关税的影响。国际货币基金组织在其《世界经济展望》报告中表示，上调是由于“第一季度强劲的结转抵消了自7月以来美国对印度进口商品的有效关税率的上升。”尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普征收的50%的高额关税导致出口前景黯淡，但由于私人消费强劲，印度4月至6月的国内生产总值增长了7.8%，为五个季度以来的最高水平。然而，国际货币基金组织将印度2026/27财年的增长预测下调了0.2个百分点，至6.2%。一周前，世界银行将印度2025/26财年的增长预测从6.3%上调至6.5%，同时由于美国关税的影响，将下一财年的预测下调20个基点至6.3%。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India’s growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.4% for FY2025/26, as the country’s strong growth momentum is expected to offset the impact of high US tariffs on Indian goods. In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said the upward revision was due to a "carryover from a strong first quarter more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July." India’s GDP expanded by 7.8% in April–June, the highest in five quarters, driven by strong private consumption despite a subdued export outlook caused by steep 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. However, the IMF lowered India’s growth forecast for FY2026/27 by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2%. The IMF’s upgrade comes a week after the World Bank raised its own forecast for India’s growth in FY2025/26 to 6.5% from 6.3%, while trimming its projection for the next fiscal year by 20 bps to 6.3% due to the impact of US tariffs.

印度10年期G-Sec的收益率降至略低于6.51%，为近一周来的最低水平，因为投资者在等待10月15日央行最新政策会议纪要的同时，专注于每周的国债拍卖。印度各州今天出售了价值1280亿卢比的债券，远低于本周计划的2910亿卢比，一些州跳过了拍卖——此举可能反映了资金需求的减少，并支撑了债券价格。债券销售也受到更广泛市场因素的影响，包括低于预期的零售通胀和对即将到来的印度储备银行会议纪要的预期。印度9月通胀率降至1.54%，低于印度储备银行2-6%的目标和1.7%的市场预期，加强了12月降息的理由。印度储备银行本月早些时候保持基准利率不变，但表示未来几个月可能有放松政策的空间，以支持受美国关税压力的经济。

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec eased to just below 6.51%, its lowest in nearly a week, as investors focused on the weekly state debt auction while awaiting minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting due on October 15. Indian states sold 128 billion rupees worth of bonds today, well below the 291 billion rupees planned for the week, with some states skipping the auction — a move that may reflect reduced funding needs and support bond prices. The bond sale was also influenced by broader market factors, including lower-than-expected retail inflation and anticipation of the upcoming RBI meeting minutes. India’s inflation eased to 1.54% in September, below the RBI’s 2–6% target and market expectations of 1.7%, strengthening the case for interest rate cuts in December. The Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged earlier this month but signaled there may be room to ease policy in the coming months to support an economy under pressure from US tariffs.

卢比兑美元下跌12便士，创下88.80的历史新低。周二，卢比兑美元汇率跌至88.80（暂定）的历史低点，跌幅为12派萨，受国内股市下跌和美元隔夜上涨的拖累。

Rupee falls 12 paise to revisit all-time low of 88.80 against US dollar.The rupee depreciated 12 paise to revisit its all-time low of 88.80 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by negative domestic equities and overnight gains in the American currency.

周二，印度BSE Sensex指数下跌约0.4%，收于82030点，这是连续第二天下跌，由于对美中贸易紧张局势再次升级的新担忧，市场普遍抛售。中国和美国实施的港口费今天生效，揭开了世界两大经济体之间贸易战的新篇章。在国内，迄今为止第二季度业绩不佳和通胀数据疲软加剧了人们对需求疲软的担忧，加剧了获利回吐活动。对美印贸易协定的持续乐观情绪缓和了市场情绪。在股市方面，Bajaj Finance、巴拉特电子、塔塔钢铁、特伦特、TCS和亚洲涂料是跌幅最大的公司，跌幅在1.5%至1.9%之间。尽管HCLTech保持了3%-5%的年收入增长预测，并超过了第二季度的收入预期，但该公司放弃了早期的收益并略有下跌。相比之下，Tech Mahindra（+1.3%）、ICICI Bank（+0.4%）、Hindustan Unilever（0.4%）和Power Grid（0.4%）是唯一的赢家。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.4% down at 82,030 on Tuesday, the second day of losses, amid broad-based selling due to fresh concerns over a renewed escalation of US-China trade tensions. Port fees implemented by China and the US came into effect today, opening a new chapter in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Domestically, the combination of unimpressive Q2 results so far and softer inflation data heightened concerns about weak demand, intensifying profit-taking activity. Market sentiment was tempered by ongoing optimism over the US-India trade agreement. On equities, Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel, Trent, TCS, and Asian Paints were the top losers, down between 1.5% and 1.9%. HCLTech gave up early gains and fell slightly, despite keeping its annual revenue growth forecast of 3%-5% and beating Q2 revenue estimates. By contrast, Tech Mahindra (+1.3%), ICICI Bank (+0.4%), Hindustan Unilever (+0.4%), and Power Grid (+0.4%) were the only gainers.