进出口对冲加剧了印度卢比对印度储备银行的依赖。数月来，美印贸易协议的不确定性扭曲了印度的外汇套期保值格局，因为对卢比可能进一步走弱的预期放大了进口商的套期保值，而出口商则犹豫不决，让央行承担由此对货币造成的压力。

Yawning gulf in importer, exporter hedging heightens Indian rupee's reliance on RBI.Months of uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade deal have distorted India's FX hedging landscape as expectations that the rupee may weaken further have amplified importer hedging while exporters hesitate, leaving the central bank to shoulder the resulting pressure on the currency.

卢比有望在贸易协议希望和美联储降息押注的温和势头基础上进一步发展。印度卢比将寻求在周三前一交易日的温和势头的基础上继续上涨，这得益于对潜在的美印贸易协议的乐观情绪以及美国数据，这些数据使美联储下个月更有可能再次降息。

Rupee looks to build on modest momentum on trade deal hopes, Fed rate cut bets.The Indian rupee will look to build on the modest momentum from the previous session on Wednesday, aided by optimism over a potential U.S.-India trade deal and U.S. data that made it more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next month.

印度BSE Sensex指数在周二震荡后收于一周高点83871.3点，上涨约0.4%，标志着连续第二天上涨。尽管最初对金融业的盈利报告感到担忧，但市场对美印贸易协议和美国政府关门的潜在解决方案的乐观情绪占上风。美国总统特朗普周一表示，华盛顿即将与印度达成“公平贸易协议”。与此同时，投资者等待即将公布的国内通胀数据，预计食品价格下跌将带来温和，这可能为印度储备银行的进一步宽松铺平道路。BEL、Mahindra&Mahindra、Adani Ports、HCL Technologies、Eternal和Infosys领涨，涨幅在1%至2.3%之间。不利的一面是，Bajaj Finance落后，在该公司下调资产增长预测后下跌了7%以上，尽管该公司报告的合并净利润增长了23%。Bajaj Finserv、塔塔汽车光伏、塔塔钢铁、Kotak Mahindra银行和电网也是最大的输家，跌幅高达6%。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.4% up at an over one-week high of 83,871.3 after a choppy session on Tuesday, marking the second day of gains. Market optimism over a US-India trade deal and a potential resolution to the US government shutdown prevailed, despite initial concerns over earnings reports from financials. US President Trump said on Monday that Washington was close to sealing a "fair trade deal" with India. Meanwhile, investors awaited upcoming domestic inflation data, expecting moderation from lower food prices, which could pave the way for additional RBI easing. BEL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Eternal, and Infosys led the advance, rising between 1% and 2.3%. On the downside, Bajaj Finance lagged, slumping over 7%, after the company cut its asset growth forecast, despite reporting a 23% surge in consolidated net profit. Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and PowerGrid were also among the top losers, shedding up to 6%.

印度10年期G-Sec的收益率跌至6.5%以下，触及近四周来的最低水平，因为市场预计储备银行将通过公开市场操作或宣布OMO日历来支持债券市场。这一下降是由于印度储备银行为支持卢比而采取的外汇干预措施导致银行系统流动性收紧，这加剧了人们对央行将介入购买债券的预期，周五通过NDS-OM平台购买6357亿卢比就突显了这一点。投资者也在关注政府和州借贷日历的调整，这可能会缓解供应压力，并有助于在未来几周内保持收益率区间。与此同时，在最新的贸易更新中，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，华盛顿正接近与印度达成贸易协议，尽管由于交易员寻求谈判中的切实进展，市场仍然低迷。

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec dropped below 6.5%, hitting its lowest level in nearly four weeks, as markets priced in expectations that the Reserve Bank will support the bond market through open market operations or by announcing an OMO calendar. The decline came as tighter banking system liquidity, driven by RBI’s foreign-exchange interventions to support the rupee, fueled expectations that the central bank would step in to buy bonds, highlighted by its 6,357 crore rupee purchase on Friday via the NDS-OM platform. Investors are also watching adjustments to the government and state borrowing calendars, which could ease supply pressure and help keep yields range-bound in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, in the latest trade update, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington was nearing a trade deal with India, though markets remained subdued as traders looked for tangible developments in the talks.