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Rupee volatility, forwards unruffled by Middle East flare up.Expectations of rupee volatility and the cost of hedging against the currency's decline had a muted reaction to worries over a deepening of the conflict in the Middle East after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend.

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The BSE Sensex fell 596 points, or 0.7%, to 81,774 in Monday morning trade, halting gains from the previous session. The Nifty 50 also dropped 0.7%, falling below 24,950 amid concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions. The index tracked a decline in US stock futures following the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Rising oil prices weighed on sentiment amid worries about a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could accelerate domestic inflation in India, the world’s second-largest crude oil importer. Offsetting some of the losses, India’s private sector saw its strongest growth in 14 months in June, with factory activity and the services sector expanding at their fastest pace in 14 and 10 months, respectively. Almost all sectors moved into the red, led by technology, consumer durables, and healthcare. Among the biggest losers were Infosys, which sank 2.5%, followed by Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.8%), Hindustan Unilever (-1.8%), and JSW Steel (-1.7%).

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The BSE Sensex fell 596 points, or 0.7%, to 81,774 in Monday morning trade, halting gains from the previous session. The Nifty 50 also dropped 0.7%, falling below 24,950 amid concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions. The index tracked a decline in US stock futures following the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Rising oil prices weighed on sentiment amid worries about a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could accelerate domestic inflation in India, the world’s second-largest crude oil importer. Offsetting some of the losses, India’s private sector saw its strongest growth in 14 months in June, with factory activity and the services sector expanding at their fastest pace in 14 and 10 months, respectively. Almost all sectors moved into the red, led by technology, consumer durables, and healthcare. Among the biggest losers were Infosys, which sank 2.5%, followed by Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.8%), Hindustan Unilever (-1.8%), and JSW Steel (-1.7%).

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The HSBC India Services PMI increased to 60.7 in June 2025 from 58.8 in the previous month, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the fastest expansion since last August, as output and new orders continued to rise despite a slowdown in foreign sales growth. Employment also continued to increase, although it weakened slightly on a sequential basis from May to June. Turning to prices, both input and output price inflation eased, despite firms raising their fees in response to higher expenses. Finally, business sentiment for the year ahead weakened.