香港商业信心从前三个月的-3下降到2025年第一季度的-10，这是连续第三次下降。预计业务会好转的受访者比例为9%（第四季度为13%），而预计业务会恶化的受访者比例则为19%（第三季度为16%）。制造业（-22比第四季度的-19）、建筑业（-14比-12）、进出口贸易和批发业（-15比-8%）、零售业（-31比-19）、住宿和餐饮服务业（-36比-3）、运输、仓储和快递服务业（-27比-1）以及信息和通信业（-11比-5）的情绪继续恶化。此外，房地产（-15比6）和专业及商业服务（-8比3）的情绪都变得悲观。与此同时，金融和保险业的士气有所增强（10比2）。

The business confidence in Hong Kong shrank for the third consecutive period to -10 in the first quarter of 2025, down from -3 in the previous three-month period. The proportion of respondents expecting to be better was 9% (vs 13% in Q4), while those anticipating a worse business was 19% (vs 16%). Sentiment continued to deteriorate for manufacturing (-22 vs -19 in Q4), construction (-14 vs -12), import/export trade and wholesale (-15 vs -8%), retail (-31 vs -19), accommodation and food services (-36 vs -3), transportation, storage and courier services (-27 vs -1), and information and communications (-11 vs -5). Moreover, sentiment became pessimistic for both real estate (-15 vs 6) and professional and business services (-8 vs 3). Meanwhile, morale strengthened for financing and insurance (10 vs 2).

周五，恒生指数上涨61点，涨幅0.3%，收于19584点，标志着在中国经济数据乐观的情况下，恒生指数第四个交易日上涨。该国第四季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，为2023年第二季度以来的最快增速，由于近几个月的各种刺激措施，达到了约5%的官方目标。与此同时，12月工业产出同比增长6.2%，为8个月来最高，零售额从11月的3个月低点回升。当地，香港旅游发展局的数据显示，2024年，该市的游客人数激增31%，接近4500万，其中大陆游客人数最多，达3400万。在下周中国关键贷款利率月度调整之前，谨慎的态度限制了涨幅。房地产和科技股强劲上涨，而消费者小幅上涨。几家涨幅最大的公司包括中国虹桥集团（4.6%）、康师傅（开曼群岛）控股有限公司。（3.7%）和恒基兆业地产（3.0%）。该指数在前两个时期下跌后，每周上涨2.7%。

The Hang Seng increased 61 points or 0.3% to end at 19,584 on Friday, marking its fourth session of gains amid upbeat economic data from China. The country's GDP grew by 5.4% yoy in Q4, the fastest pace since Q2 2023, meeting the official target of around 5% thanks to various stimulus measures in recent months. Meanwhile, industrial output rose 6.2% yoy in December, the most in 8 months, and retail sales recovered from November's 3-month low. Locally, figures from the Hong Kong Tourism Board showed tourist arrivals in the city surged 31% to near 45 million in 2024, with the mainland contributing the most with 34 million tourists. Gains were capped by caution ahead of next week's monthly fixing for key lending rates in China. Property and tech logged strong rises, while consumers rose modestly. Several top movers included China Hongqiao Group (4.6%), Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Hlds. (3.7%), and Henderson Land Dev. (3.0%). Weekly, the index jumped 2.7% after falls in the prior two periods.

周五中午左右，香港股市上涨38点，涨幅0.2%，至19557点，连续第四天上涨，因交易员对大陆的最新数据做出反应。中国第四季度国内生产总值年增长率为5.4%，这是自9月以来北京方面采取的一系列支持措施后18个月来最强劲的增长。这使全年增长率达到5.0%，与官方设定的5%左右的目标保持一致。与此同时，12月工业产出和零售额有所回升，但失业率创下3个月新高。另外，在隔夜华尔街收益报告喜忧参半的情况下，美国期货小幅上涨。在其他新闻中，唐纳德·特朗普将于周一正式宣誓就任美国新总统，并将发表就职演说。在台湾台积电第四季度实现创纪录的净利润后，Semicon Manufacturing股价上涨10.6%。其他上涨股包括金山软件（4.3%）和招金矿业。(3.0%). 恒生指数将在三年后的第一周上涨，迄今为止已上涨约2.5%。

Hong Kong's stocks rose 38 points or 0.2% to 19,557 around noon on Friday, up for the fourth day as traders reacted to fresh data from the mainland. China's annual GDP grew by 5.4% in Q4, marking the strongest rise in 18 months following a blitz of support measures from Beijing since September. This brought the full-year increase to 5.0%, aligning with the official target of around 5%. Meantime, industrial output and retail sales picked up in December but the jobless rate hit a 3-month top. Separately, US futures rose slightly after a weak session on Wall Street overnight amid a mixed set of earnings reports. In other news, Donald Trump will officially be sworn in as the new US president on Monday and he is set to make the inaugural speech. Semicon Manufacturing jumped 10.6% after Taiwan TSMC saw a record net profit in Q4. Other gainers were Kingsoft Corp. (4.3%), and Zhaojin Mining Inds. (3.0%). The Hang Seng is set to rise for the first week in three, jumping around 2.5% so far.

周四，恒生指数上涨237点，涨幅1.2%，收于19523点，这是继周三华尔街强劲交易后的第三天上涨，因为越来越多的人押注美联储在美国核心通胀放缓后今年可能降息。该指数在上周跌至近4个月低点后，达到一周来的最高水平，这得益于中国官方媒体的报道，即央行可能会在1月底春节前下调商业银行的存款准备金率，为经济提供更多流动性。交易员对美国升级科技限制并将更多中国实体列入其限制贸易名单的消息不屑一顾。周五公布关键数据，包括中国第四季度国内生产总值以及12月零售额和工业产出数据之前的谨慎态度限制了进一步的涨幅。所有行业均上涨，金融、科技和消费者领涨。表现最好的包括中国虹桥集团（5.3%）、吉利汽车（3.7%）、泰克工业。（2.6%）和友邦保险集团（2.3%）。

The Hang Seng climbed 237 points or 1.2% to close at 19,523 on Thursday, marking its third day of gains after a strong session on Wall Street Wednesday, amid mounting bets on potential rate cuts by the Fed this year following a slowdown in US core inflation. The index stood at its highest level in a week after dipping to a near 4-month low last week, boosted by reports from Chinese state media that the central bank might cut the RRR for commercial banks before the Spring Festival at the end of January, providing more liquidity to the economy. Traders shrugged off news that the US escalated its tech curbs and added more Chinese entities to its restricted trade list. Capping further gains were caution ahead of key data Friday, including China's Q4 GDP, and December readings for retail sales and industrial output. All sectors rose, led by financials, tech, and consumers. Top performers included China Hongqiao Group (5.3%), Geely Auto (3.7%), Techtronic Inds. (2.6%), and AIA Group (2.3%).