德国10年期政府债券收益率回落至2.7%以下，投资者为繁忙的一周央行会议做好了准备。由于对其独立性的担忧，美联储预计将在周三降息至少25个基点，因为政策制定者正在权衡劳动力市场降温与关税驱动的通货膨胀。市场还将分析最新的经济预测和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，以指导年底前的政策前景。与此同时，预计英格兰银行和日本银行将保持政策稳定。在欧洲，欧洲央行上周表示，其降息周期可能已经结束，行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德指出，增长风险现在“更加平衡”

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield fell back below 2.7% as investors positioned for a busy week of central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday amid concerns over its independence, as policymakers weigh a cooling labor market against tariff-driven inflation. Markets will also parse updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on the policy outlook through year-end. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold policy steady. In Europe, the ECB signaled last week that its rate-cutting cycle may be over, with President Christine Lagarde noting that growth risks are now “more balanced.”

法兰克福DAX 40指数周一上涨0.4%，至23790点，接近9月1日以来的最高水平，因为投资者权衡了惠誉下调法国信用评级的影响，并期待着一周繁忙的央行会议。由于政策制定者在劳动力市场降温与关税驱动的通胀压力之间取得平衡，人们对美联储的独立性表示担忧，预计美联储周三将降息至少25个基点。相比之下，人们普遍预计英格兰银行和日本银行将保持政策不变。在企业方面，莱茵金属公司在与总部位于不来梅的造船商Lürssen达成协议收购其军事部门NVL后，股价上涨了2%以上。空中客车公司股价上涨超过1%，此前媒体报道称，该公司最早可能在2025年与莱昂纳多和泰雷兹就欧洲卫星联盟达成协议。为了支持反弹，加拿大皇家银行将空客的目标价格从200欧元上调至220欧元。

Frankfurt’s DAX 40 index rose 0.4% to 23,790 on Monday, moving closer to its highest level since September 1, as investors weighed Fitch’s downgrade of France’s credit rating and looked ahead to a busy week of central bank meetings. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday, amid concerns over its independence as policymakers balance a cooling labor market with tariff-driven inflation pressures. By contrast, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are widely expected to leave policy unchanged. On the corporate front, Rheinmetall gained more than 2% after striking a deal with Bremen-based shipbuilder Lürssen to acquire its military division, NVL. Airbus added over 1% after media reports suggested the company could reach an agreement as early as 2025 on a European satellite alliance with Leonardo and Thales. Supporting the rally, RBC raised its Airbus price target from €200 to €220.

2025年8月，德国批发价格同比上涨0.7%，高于上月0.5%的涨幅，标志着连续第九个月上涨。食品、饮料和烟草价格上涨4.2%，其中咖啡、茶、可可和香料（17.7%）、糖和烘焙产品（14.5%）、肉类和肉制品（9.4%）、活体动物（8.9%）以及牛奶、乳制品、鸡蛋和油（7.4%）大幅上涨。有色金属矿石和金属的价格也飙升了21.1%。相比之下，固体燃料和矿物油产品（-6.9%）、废物和废料（-10.4%）、计算机和相关设备（-4.9%）以及铁、钢和黑色半成品（-4.6%）的产量显著下降。按月计算，批发价格下跌0.6%，远高于7月份0.1%的跌幅，超出了0.2%的涨幅预期，并显示出一年来最强劲的跌幅。

Wholesale prices in Germany rose 0.7% year-on-year in August 2025, accelerating from a 0.5% gain in the previous month and marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Food, beverages, and tobacco prices climbed 4.2%, led by sharp rises in coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices (17.7%), sugar and bakery products (14.5%), meat and meat products (9.4%), live animals (8.9%), and milk, milk products, eggs, and oils (7.4%). Prices for non-ferrous ores and metals also surged 21.1%. In contrast, notable declines were seen in solid fuels and mineral oil products (-6.9%), waste and scrap (-10.4%), computers and related equipment (-4.9%), and iron, steel, and ferrous semi-finished products (-4.6%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices shrank 0.6%, far steeper than a 0.1% fall in July, defying expectations for a 0.2% rise and pointing to the strongest decline in a year.

周五，法兰克福DAX指数小幅下跌，收于23630点左右，因为在惠誉对法国主权评级进行审查之前，欧洲市场普遍持谨慎态度，投资者对可能的降级持谨慎态度。与此同时，对美联储即将降息的乐观情绪缓和了市场情绪。与此同时，欧洲央行表示将结束降息阶段，拉加德总统评论称，该行处于“良好状态”，增长风险现在更加平衡。在企业方面，汽车股、银行和制药公司的压力最大。保时捷汽车控股公司、大众汽车、梅赛德斯-奔驰集团和宝马股价下跌1.6%至2.1%。其他跌幅最大的公司包括德国商业银行（-2%）、拜耳（-0.9%）和西门子能源（-1.5%），而汉诺威Ruck（+2.3%）和慕尼黑Ruck（+1.3%）等再保险公司在该指数中名列前茅。本周，DAX指数可能上涨0.2%。

The DAX in Frankfurt turned slightly negative to trade around 23,630 on Friday, as caution spread across European markets ahead of Fitch’s review of France’s sovereign rating, with investors wary of a possible downgrade. Meanwhile, market sentiment was tempered by optimism around an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The ECB, meanwhile, signaled an end to its rate-cutting phase, with President Lagarde commenting that the bank is in a “good place” and that growth risks are now more balanced. On the corporate front, auto stocks, banks and pharmaceutical companies were the most pressured. Porsche Automobil Holding, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW shed between 1.6% and 2.1%. Other top losers included Commerzbank (-2%), Bayer (-0.9%) and Siemens Energy (-1.5%), while reinsurance companies such as Hannover Ruck (+2.3%) and Munchener Ruck (+1.3%) topped the index. For the week, the DAX likely rose by 0.2%.