德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.57%，较第二季度下跌13个基点，因为市场将最近的数据和欧洲央行的评论解读为支持持续的宽松政策立场。在欧洲央行中央银行论坛上发表讲话时，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德总统对6月份的通胀数据表示欢迎，该数据与央行2%的目标一致，但她警告说，由于碎片化加剧和地缘政治紧张局势加剧，“双边风险”仍然存在。通胀疲软的同时，经济增长持续受阻，包括贸易紧张局势、中东不稳定以及欧元走强。值得注意的是，尽管德国推动增加债务发行以资助基础设施和国防投资，但第二季度德国国债收益率仍有所下降。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell to 2.57%, extending a 13 basis-point decline from the second quarter, as markets interpreted recent data and ECB commentary as supportive of a continued accommodative policy stance. Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, President Christine Lagarde welcomed the June inflation reading, which aligned with the central bank’s 2% target, but cautioned that “two-sided risks” remain due to increasing fragmentation and mounting geopolitical tensions. The subdued inflation print came alongside persistent headwinds to growth, including trade tensions, instability in the Middle East, and a strengthening euro. Notably, Bund yields declined in Q2 despite Germany’s push to ramp up debt issuance to fund infrastructure and defense investments.

法兰克福DAX指数周二小幅下跌，收于23800点左右，与同行持平，因为交易员在7月9日互惠关税最后期限之前关注与美国的谈判，以及经济数据。据报道，欧盟对美国的一项贸易协议持开放态度，该协议对许多出口产品征收10%的统一关税，前提是制药、酒精、半导体和商用飞机等关键行业免征关税。与此同时，欧洲央行的年度论坛今天在辛特拉开幕，吸引了投资者的注意力，因为央行行长们准备分享对政策和经济前景的见解。在数据方面，德国6月份经季节性调整的失业率保持在6.3%，低于预期的6.4%，但仍为2020年9月以来的最高水平。在单一股票中，海德堡材料、西门子能源和德意志银行的跌幅最大，各下跌2%以上。此外，国防类股和汽车制造商也面临压力。另一方面，阿迪达斯以2.5%的涨幅跑赢大盘。

Frankfurt's DAX edged lower to trade around 23,800 on Tuesday, in line with its peers, as traders eyed negotiations with the US ahead of July's 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, alongside economic data. The European Union is reportedly open to a US trade deal with a uniform 10% tariff on many exports, provided key sectors like pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft are exempt. Meanwhile, the ECB’s annual forum kicks off today in Sintra, drawing investor attention as central bankers prepare to share insights on policy and the economic outlook. On the data front, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.3% in June, below the expected 6.4% but still the highest since September 2020. Among single stocks, Heidelberg Materials, Siemens Energy and Deutsche Bank were the biggest laggards, shedding over 2% each. Also, defense stocks and automakers saw pressure. On the flip side, Adidas outperformed with a 2.5% advance.

周二，德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.55%，延续了今年第二季度13个基点的跌幅，有证据表明欧洲央行有空间保持宽松的政策立场。欧元区6月份的整体年通胀率为2%，在德国和意大利的价格走势低于预期的情况下，仍在欧洲央行的目标范围内。通胀率走弱与经济增长的持续逆风相吻合，最近欧盟表示将容忍华盛顿通过的10%的基准关税，支持欧洲央行采取更宽松的政策，美国关税的威胁加剧了这一逆风。保持较低利率的灵活性也归功于欧元的强势，今年欧元兑美元升值了13%以上。尽管德国积极增加基础设施和国防投资的债务发行，但10年期德国国债收益率在第二季度有所下降。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell to the 2.55% mark on Tuesday, extending the 13bps drop from the second quarter of the year amid evidence that the ECB has room to maintain an accommodative policy stance. The headline annual inflation rate for the Eurozone was at 2% in June, remaining within the ECB's target amid softer-than-expected price developments in Germany and Italy. The softer inflation rate coincided with persistent headwinds to growth, recently magnified by the threat of US tariffs after the EU noted that they will tolerate the 10% baseline tariff passed by Washington, supporting the case for more accommodative policy by the ECB. Flexibility in maintaining its lower rate was also owed to the euro's strength, which appreciated by over 13% against the dollar this year. The yield on the 10-year Bund dropped in the second quarter despite Germany's move to aggressively increase debt issuance for investment on infrastructure and defense.

HCOB德国制造业采购经理人指数于2025年6月确认为49，为2022年8月以来的最高水平，尽管这仍表明整体制造业商业状况略有收缩。受国内外需求增加的带动，新订单以2022年3月以来的最快速度增长。此外，制造商第四次扩大生产，采购活动三年来首次增加。即便如此，采购库存和生产后库存仍在下降。此外，就业人数继续减少，积压工作减少，这表明产能利用不足，而供应商交货时间有所改善。在价格方面，由于供应商之间的竞争和美元走软，德国制造商为投入品支付的平均价格下降。工厂大门费用连续第二个月下降。最后，信心达到2022年2月以来的最高水平，反映了增加公共部门支出的计划和更广泛的经济好转的希望。

The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 49 in June 2025, the highest since August 2022, though it still signals a slight contraction in overall manufacturing business conditions. New orders rose at the strongest pace since March 2022, led by increased demand both at home and abroad. Also, manufacturers scaled up production for the fourth time and purchasing activity increased for first time in three years. Even so, stocks of purchases and post-production inventories continued to fall. Also, employment continued to be scaled back and backlogs of work fell in a sign of underutilised capacity while supplier delivery times improved. On the price front, average prices paid by German manufacturers for inputs fell amid competition among suppliers and a weaker US dollar. Factory gate charges fell for a second straight month. Lastly, confidence was the highest since February 2022, reflecting the plans for increased public sector spending and hopes of a wider economic upturn.