德国2月份失业率变化为2.6万，高于预测（1万）。德国2月份失业率变化为2.6万，高于预测（1万）

Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February.Germany Unemployment Change came in at 26K, above forecasts (10K) in February

德国2月份失业率为6.3%，高于预期（6.2%）。德国2月份失业率为6.3%，高于预期（6.2%）

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February.Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 6.3%, above forecasts (6.2%) in February

德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.71%，为三周多来的最低水平，因为法国和西班牙低于预期的通胀数据加剧了人们对欧洲央行降息的预期。法国通胀率稳定在0.9%，而不是像预期的那样上升，而西班牙通胀率急剧放缓至2.2%，接近欧洲央行2%的目标。交易员们现在预计今年将降息60个基点，相当于至少两次降息，第三次降息的可能性为40%。这些数据为下周发布关键报告之前更广泛的欧元区通胀趋势提供了早期洞察。更不确定的是，特朗普新宣布的对进口汽车征收25%的关税威胁着德国的汽车行业，近四分之一的欧盟汽车出口将流向美国。定于4月2日征收的关税可能会通过增加供应链的成本进一步削弱欧洲的增长。作为回应，欧盟正在考虑采取反制措施，包括自特朗普第一任期以来加强贸易防御工具。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell to 2.71%, its lowest in over three weeks, as weaker-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain fueled expectations of ECB rate cuts. French inflation held steady at 0.9% instead of rising as predicted, while Spanish inflation slowed sharply to 2.2%, nearing the ECB’s 2% target. Traders are now pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, equivalent to at least two reductions, with a 40% chance of a third. These figures offer early insight into broader Eurozone inflation trends ahead of key reports next week. Adding to uncertainty, Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles threaten Germany’s auto sector, with nearly a quarter of EU car exports heading to the U.S. The tariffs, set for April 2, could further weaken European growth by increasing costs across supply chains. In response, the EU is considering countermeasures, including trade-defense tools strengthened since Trump’s first term.

截至2025年4月，德国GfK消费者气候指标为-24.5，与前一时期略微修订的-24.6相比变化不大，低于市场预期的-23.0。这是议会选举后进行的第一次调查，显示经济前景（3月份为6.9比1.2）、收入预期（-3.1比-5.4）和购买意愿（-8.2比-11.1）有所改善。然而，储蓄倾向进一步上升（13.8比9.4），达到2024年4月以来的最高水平。NIM的消费者专家Rolf Bürkl表示，新政府的迅速组建和今年预算的提前通过在一定程度上缓解了消费者的悲观情绪。然而，不确定性依然存在。“这些消费者对德国经济复苏的希望是否合理还有待观察。这也将取决于最近通过的财政刺激计划是否得到迅速有效的实施，”Bürkl指出。

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator stood at -24.5 heading into April 2025, little changed from a marginally revised -24.6 in the previous period, missing market expectations of -23.0. This was the first survey conducted after the parliamentary elections, showing improvements in economic prospects (6.9 vs. 1.2 in March), income expectations (-3.1 vs. -5.4), and willingness to buy (-8.2 vs. -11.1). However, the propensity to save rose further (13.8 vs. 9.4), reaching its highest level since April 2024. According to Rolf Bürkl, a consumer expert at NIM, the rapid formation of a new government and the early adoption of this year’s budget have somewhat eased consumer pessimism. Still, uncertainty remains. "Whether these consumer hopes for a revival of the German economy are justified remains to be seen. This will also depend on whether the recently adopted fiscal stimulus package is implemented swiftly and effectively," Bürkl noted.