德国大选在即：弗里德里希·默茨准备成为新总理。DAX 40指数正寻求支撑，欧元/美元在周日德国大选前围绕阻力位交易！

German Snap Elections Eyed: Friedrich Merz Poised to Be the New Chancellor.The DAX 40 is eyeing support and EUR/USD trades around resistance ahead of the German election on Sunday!

DAX指数未能守住早盘涨幅，周五收于22287.6点，跌幅0.1%，为一周多来的最低水平，表现落后于地区同行。在消化企业盈利喜忧参半和经济数据疲软的同时，交易员在周日德国大选前变得更加谨慎。经济问题依然存在，但这场运动的重点是移民、犯罪和德国参与乌克兰冲突。右翼反对党在民意调查中继续领先，保守的基督教民主联盟（CDU）及其巴伐利亚姐妹党基督教社会联盟（CSU）领先，其次是极右翼的德国另类选择党（AfD）。与此同时，现任总理朔尔茨的社民党排名第三。在数据方面，一项新的PMI调查显示，2月份德国私营部门的表现超出预期。西门子能源、空中客车和MTU航空发动机是股票中跌幅最大的，而巴斯夫和大众汽车的涨幅最大。本周，该指数下跌了约1%。

The DAX failed to hold onto early gains and closed 0.1% down at 22,287.6 on Friday, its lowest in over a week and underperforming its regional peers. While digesting mixed corporate earnings and weak economic data, traders grew more cautious ahead of Germany's snap election on Sunday. Economic concerns persist, but the campaign has centered on migration, crime, and Germany’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Right-wing opposition parties continue to lead in the polls, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), ahead, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Meanwhile, incumbent Chancellor Scholz's SPD ranks third. On the data front, a fresh PMI survey showed German private-sector performance exceeded expectations in February. Siemens Energy, Airbus and MTU Aero Engines were the top losers among stocks, while BASF and Volkswagen saw the biggest gains. For the week, the index fell about 1%.

早间出价：沃尔玛削减华尔街，欧元关注德国投票。Mike Dolan展望美国和全球市场的未来

Morning Bid: Walmart clips Wall St, euro eyes German vote.A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

德国10年期债券收益率跌至2.5%以下，此前数据显示欧元区2月份商业活动仍停滞不前，加剧了人们对经济长期停滞的担忧。这加剧了投资者对欧洲央行降息的预期，货币市场目前预计今年将加息78个基点，高于周四的74个基点。与此同时，投资者正密切关注周日的德国大选。民意调查显示，由弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟集团有望获胜，但在持续的经济挑战中，可能需要联盟伙伴来执政。交易员还权衡了地缘政治风险，尤其是在美国表示计划在与俄罗斯（不包括乌克兰和欧洲）进行谈判的同时缩减对乌克兰的支持之际。此外，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会从4月2日开始对汽车、半导体和药品进口征收25%的关税，此举可能会对欧洲汽车制造商产生重大影响。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell below 2.5% after data showed Eurozone business activity remained stagnant in February, reinforcing concerns of prolonged economic stagnation. This fueled investor expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, with money markets now pricing in 78 basis points of easing this year, up from 74 basis points on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching Germany’s general election on Sunday. Polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is poised to win but will likely need coalition partners to govern amid ongoing economic challenges. Traders also weighed geopolitical risks, particularly as the US signaled plans to scale back support for Ukraine while engaging in negotiations with Russia—excluding both Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, US President Trump indicated he would likely impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports starting April 2, a move that could heavily impact European carmakers.