随着全球投资者消化了新的美国经济数据并重新评估了美联储政策的前景,德国10年期国债收益率从最近五周的高点2.699%降至2.64%。美国4月零售销售增长大幅放缓,而生产者价格意外下降,主要是由于贸易利润率下降,这进一步表明特朗普总统的关税开始对经济产生影响。与此同时,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告称,由于供应冲击日益频繁,长期利率可能会保持高位,通胀可能会变得更加不稳定。在欧洲,货币市场在年底前将欧洲央行的存款便利利率定价为1.79%,并认为6月份降息的可能性为95%,因为政策制定者的目标是在贸易壁垒上升的情况下支持经济增长。欧洲央行政策制定者Villeroy de Galhau表示,到夏季还有再次降息的空间,而他的同事Nagel指出,通胀将“很有可能”趋同于欧洲央行2%的目标。
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield slipped to 2.64%, down from a recent five-week high of 2.699%, as global investors digested fresh US economic data and reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. US retail sales growth slowed sharply in April, while producer prices unexpectedly fell largely due to a drop in trade margins, adding to signs that tariffs under President Trump are beginning to have an economic impact. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that long-term interest rates may remain elevated and inflation could become more volatile due to increasingly frequent supply shocks. In Europe, money markets priced the ECB’s deposit facility rate at 1.79% by year-end and assigned a 95% probability to a rate cut in June, as policymakers aim to support growth amid rising trade barriers. ECB policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said there is room for another cut by summer, while his colleague Nagel noted a “good probability” that inflation will converge toward the ECB’s 2% target.