德国GfK消费者气候指标从上个月的-20.3降至2025年8月的-21.5，低于市场预期的-19.2，为4月以来的最低水平。这一下降反映了消费者日益悲观，储蓄倾向攀升至2024年2月以来的最高水平（16.4对7月的13.9），购买意愿连续第二个月下降（-9.2对-6.2）。经济预期也大幅下降（10.1比20.1），结束了连续五个月的改善。NIM消费者专家Rolf Buerkl表示：“消费者信心的复苏继续推迟，因为储蓄意愿再次上升。”他补充说，普遍的不确定性、为困难时期做好准备的必要性以及高粮价是关键因素。尽管如此，在稳固的工资协议和通胀缓解的支持下，收入预期连续第五个月有所改善，达到一年来的最高点（15.2比12.8）。

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator slipped to -21.5 heading into August 2025 from -20.3 in the previous month, missing market expectations of -19.2 and marking the lowest reading since April. The decline reflected growing consumer pessimism, with the propensity to save climbing to its highest level since February 2024 (16.4 vs 13.9 in July) and willingness to buy declined for a second consecutive month (-9.2 vs -6.2). Economic expectations also dropped sharply (10.1 vs 20.1), ending a five-month streak of improvement. “The recovery in consumer sentiment continues to be postponed, because the willingness to save has risen again,” said NIM consumer expert Rolf Buerkl, adding that general uncertainty, the need to prepare for difficult times, and high food prices were key factors. Still, income expectations improved for the fifth straight month, reaching a one-year high (15.2 vs 12.8), supported by solid wage agreements and easing inflation.

德国GfK消费者信心降至-21.5，储蓄偏好上升。德国消费者信心在8月份再次回落，GfK消费者气候指数从-20.3降至-21.5，低于预期的-19。

German GfK consumer sentiment dips to -21.5 as saving preference rises.German consumer confidence took another step back heading into August, with GfK Consumer Climate index falling to -21.5, down from -20.3 and missing expectations of -19.

在法兰克福，DAX指数周三上涨199点，涨幅0.83%。涨幅最大的是戴姆勒卡车控股公司（7.32%）、保时捷公司（6.63%）和大众汽车公司（6.40%）。最大的亏损来自SAP（-4.37%）、英飞凌（-3.61%）和E.ON（-2.72%）。

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index went up by 199 points or 0.83 percent on Wednesday. Top gainers were Daimler Truck Holding AG (7.32%), Porsche AG (6.63%) and Volkswagen (6.40%). Biggest losses came from SAP (-4.37%), Infineon (-3.61%) and E.ON (-2.72%).

德国10年期国债收益率周三上涨至2.62%，此前在周一和周二下跌了10个基点以上，因为最近宣布的美日贸易协定缓解了对全球关税升级的担忧，并重新点燃了与欧盟达成类似协议的希望。尽管有所缓解，但市场仍持谨慎态度。据报道，欧盟特使正在讨论应急措施，以防与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易谈判破裂，特朗普在8月1日的最后期限之前采取了更激进的关税立场。与此同时，投资者的注意力转移到周四的欧洲央行政策决定和欧洲最大经济体发布的快速PMI上。欧洲央行预计将在连续八次降息后保持利率稳定，因为官员们权衡了持续的贸易不确定性、欧元坚挺和通胀放缓。货币市场完全预计到12月将降息25个基点，9月份降息的可能性约为50%。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 2.62% on Wednesday, after falling more than 10 basis points over Monday and Tuesday, as the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement eased concerns over escalating global tariffs and rekindled hopes for a similar deal with the EU. Despite the relief, markets remain cautious. EU envoys are reportedly discussing contingency measures in case of a breakdown in trade talks with US President Donald Trump, who has adopted a more aggressive tariff stance ahead of the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, investor focus shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy decision and the release of flash PMIs from Europe’s largest economies. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady following eight consecutive cuts, as officials weigh persistent trade uncertainty, a firm euro, and muted inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by December, with roughly a 50% probability of that move occurring in September.