早间出价：沃尔玛削减华尔街，欧元关注德国投票。Mike Dolan展望美国和全球市场的未来

Morning Bid: Walmart clips Wall St, euro eyes German vote.A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

德国10年期债券收益率跌至2.5%以下，此前数据显示欧元区2月份商业活动仍停滞不前，加剧了人们对经济长期停滞的担忧。这加剧了投资者对欧洲央行降息的预期，货币市场目前预计今年将加息78个基点，高于周四的74个基点。与此同时，投资者正密切关注周日的德国大选。民意调查显示，由弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟集团有望获胜，但在持续的经济挑战中，可能需要联盟伙伴来执政。交易员还权衡了地缘政治风险，尤其是在美国表示计划在与俄罗斯（不包括乌克兰和欧洲）进行谈判的同时缩减对乌克兰的支持之际。此外，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会从4月2日开始对汽车、半导体和药品进口征收25%的关税，此举可能会对欧洲汽车制造商产生重大影响。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell below 2.5% after data showed Eurozone business activity remained stagnant in February, reinforcing concerns of prolonged economic stagnation. This fueled investor expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, with money markets now pricing in 78 basis points of easing this year, up from 74 basis points on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching Germany’s general election on Sunday. Polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is poised to win but will likely need coalition partners to govern amid ongoing economic challenges. Traders also weighed geopolitical risks, particularly as the US signaled plans to scale back support for Ukraine while engaging in negotiations with Russia—excluding both Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, US President Trump indicated he would likely impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports starting April 2, a move that could heavily impact European carmakers.

欧元：德国主要政党承诺将极右翼排除在任何联盟之外。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，欧元受益于美元多头的平仓，但在交叉盘上总体上仍然没有吸引力。

EUR: Major German parties pledge to keep the far right out of any coalition – ING.The euro has benefited from the unwinding of US Dollar (USD) longs, but remains generally unattractive in the crosses, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

初步数据显示，HCOB德国制造业采购经理人指数从1月的45升至2025年2月的46.1，超过了市场预期的45.5。这标志着24个月来的最高读数，表明制造业生产下降的拖累有所减轻，制造业生产出现了9个月来最慢的下降。尽管制造业继续拖累私营部门的整体表现，但其负面影响有所缓解，因为工厂生产出现了自去年5月以来最慢的收缩率（指数为48.5）。该行业的新订单下降速度也有所放缓，尽管失业现象持续存在，制造业就业人数进一步减少。在定价方面，制造业采购价格加速下跌。与此同时，制造商报告称，与上月相比，对前景的信心有所下降。

The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in February 2025 from 45 in January, surpassing market expectations of 45.5, according to preliminary data. This marked the highest reading in 24 months, signaling a reduced drag from falling manufacturing production, which recorded its slowest decline in nine months. While manufacturing continued to weigh on the private sector's overall performance, its negative impact eased as factory production saw its slowest rate of contraction since May last year (index at 48.5). The sector also experienced slower declines in new orders, though job losses persisted, with deeper cuts in manufacturing employment. On the pricing front, manufacturing purchase prices fell at an accelerated pace. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a decline in confidence regarding the outlook compared to the previous month.