由于投资者关注重大公共支出和财政改革计划,德国10年期国债收益率升至2.9%以上,接近2011年6月以来的最高水平。可能的下一任总理弗里德里希·默茨(Friedrich Merz)的目标是在新的联邦议院就职之前通过一项5000亿欧元的基础设施基金和借款规则的变更,因为这些改革稍后将更难获得批准。在货币方面,对欧洲央行降息的预期正在发生变化,市场预计4月份降息25个基点的可能性只有50%。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德警告称,贸易关税和财政支出计划可能会使维持稳定通胀的努力复杂化。随着对美国经济衰退风险和贸易紧张局势加剧的担忧加剧,全球不确定性正在加剧市场波动。
Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose above 2.9%, nearing their highest level since June 2011, as investors focus on plans for major public spending and fiscal reforms. Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, aims to pass a €500 billion infrastructure fund and changes to borrowing rules before the new Bundestag takes office, as the reforms will be harder to approve later. On the monetary side, expectations for ECB rate cuts are shifting, with markets pricing only a 50% chance of a 25 bps cut in April. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that trade tariffs and fiscal-spending plans could complicate efforts to maintain stable inflation. Global uncertainty is adding to market volatility, as concerns grow over US recession risks and rising trade tensions.