法国10年期政府债券的收益率在3.45%左右几乎没有变化,保持在10月中旬以来的最高水平附近,并跟随欧洲更广泛的趋势。在乐观地认为美国政府关门可能很快结束后,风险偏好上升,市场情绪有所改善。在欧洲,预计欧洲央行将在今年剩余时间保持借贷成本不变,2026年12月的存款利率预计为1.9%,2027年3月为1.95%,而目前为2.0%。市场预计2026年9月降息25个基点的可能性为40%。在法国,预算谈判仍在继续,国民议会批准了2026年社会保障融资法案(PLFSS)的收入部分。这使立法者能够继续讨论关键条款,包括暂停养老金改革的条款,这是塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努总理的一项重大让步,旨在安抚社会党(PS)并避免不信任投票。
The yield on France’s 10-year government bond was little changed around 3.45%, holding near its highest level since mid-October and tracking broader European trends. Sentiment improved amid rising risk appetite following optimism that the US government shutdown could soon end. In Europe, the ECB is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged for the rest of the year, with the deposit rate projected at 1.9% in December 2026 and 1.95% in March 2027, compared with 2.0% currently. Markets are pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2026. In France, budget talks continued, with the National Assembly approving the revenue section of the 2026 Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS). This allows lawmakers to proceed to key articles, including one that would suspend the pension reform, a major concession by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu aimed at appeasing the Socialist Party (PS) and avoiding a vote of no confidence.