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The CAC 40 index dropped 0.4% to below 7,565 on Monday, pulling back to its lowest level since late April, after a major escalation in Middle East tensions rattled global markets. The decline followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, marking Washington’s direct entry into the Israel-Iran conflict. The move shocked markets, despite earlier remarks from Trump suggesting a diplomatic approach. Investors are now bracing for possible retaliation from Tehran, including threats to US personnel or disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—risks that could disrupt global energy markets. Adding to pressure, flash PMI data showed France’s private sector activity shrank further in June, with both services and manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction territory. On the corporate side, losses were broad-based, led by LVMH (-0.9%), Loreal (-0.8%), and Air Liquide (-1.8%). Conversely, the energy sector offered some support amid rising oil prices.

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The HCOB Flash Composite PMI for France fell to 48.5 in June 2025, down from 49.3 in May and below market expectations of 49.3, flash estimates showed. The data signaled a tenth consecutive month of contraction in the country’s private sector, with the downturn deepening slightly due to continued weak demand. The decline was broad-based across sectors, led by manufacturing, where the PMI dropped to a four-month low of 47.8 from 49.8 in May. The services sector also underperformed, though its activity remained broadly unchanged from the previous month (PMI at 48.7 vs 48.9). Overall sales continued to fall for the 13th consecutive month, with the pace of decline accelerating slightly, including for export orders. Falling volumes of outstanding business led to further job reductions. On the price front, input cost inflation remained stable, while selling prices rose only modestly due to subdued demand. Lastly, business confidence improved, reaching an eight-month high after May’s low.

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The HCOB France Services PMI dropped to 48.7 in June 2025 from 48.9 in the previous month, falling short of market expectations of 49.2, preliminary estimates showed. This marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction in the French services sector, as new business continued to decline—albeit at the softest pace since the beginning of the year. On the employment front, service providers saw a steeper decline in staffing than manufacturers, mainly due to non-renewal of temporary contracts and unfilled retirements or voluntary exits. In terms of pricing, input costs for service firms continued to rise in June, although the rate of increase was among the mildest observed in the past four years. Meanwhile, output charges rose once again, as companies sought to pass on cost pressures to clients. Looking ahead, business confidence improved in June, with optimism reaching its highest level since last October.

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The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 in June 2025 from 49.8 in May, falling short of market expectations of stabilization at 50, according to preliminary estimates. The reading signaled a sharper contraction and was the steepest in four months, driven by the first decline in production in three months. Manufacturers also reported the fastest drop in factory orders since February, citing intense international competition, weak demand from the automotive sector, and delays in client decision-making. New export orders shrank at a quicker pace, while inflationary pressures accelerated. The outlook remains uncertain as weakening domestic demand and falling new orders weigh on the sector. While ECB rate cuts, EU deregulation, and planned defense spending may provide some support, risks from global trade disruptions, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and mounting international competition continue to cloud the outlook.