周一，CAC 40指数下跌0.3%，收于7665点，部分回吐了周五1.8%的涨幅，因为投资者在欧洲和美国之间重新出现贸易紧张局势的情况下变得更加谨慎。周末，特朗普总统重申，新关税的7月9日最后期限不会延长，并表示“那些想避免关税的人知道该怎么办”。该声明增加了对日本和加拿大等合作伙伴的压力。与此同时，上个月签署的美英贸易协定正式生效，中国报告了与美国达成的一项新协议的进展，该协议涵盖技术和农业，但关键问题仍未得到解决。市场现在正在等待明天公布的法国制造业采购经理人指数。在企业方面，Stellantis（-3.0%）、雷诺（-2.4%）和施耐德电气（-1.8%）均出现亏损，而欧莱雅（+2.2%）和泰雷兹（+1.6%）的表现优于其他公司。

The CAC 40 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,665 on Monday, giving back part of Friday’s 1.8% rally, as investor caution grew amid renewed trade tensions between Europe and the US. Over the weekend, President Trump reaffirmed that there will be no extension of the July 9th deadline for new tariffs, stating that “those who want to avoid tariffs know what to do”. The statement increased the pressure on partners such as Japan and Canada. Meanwhile, the US–UK trade deal signed last month officially came into effect, and China reported progress in a new agreement with the US, covering technology and agriculture, though key issues remain unresolved. The markets are now waiting for France's manufacturing PMI to be released tomorrow. On the corporate front, Stellantis (-3.0%), Renault (-2.4%), and Schneider Electric (-1.8%) posted losses, while L’Oréal (+2.2%) and Thales (+1.6%) outperformed.

法国10年期政府债券收益率降至3.25%，因投资者消化了新的经济数据以及欧洲央行和美联储降息预期的增长。市场情绪仍然谨慎，注意力还集中在美国总统特朗普7月9日最后期限之前的全球贸易发展以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势上。在经济方面，法国6月份的年通胀率从5月份的四年多来的低点0.7%升至0.9%，尽管仍远低于欧洲央行2%的目标。投资者继续将欧洲央行的最终利率定在1.75%-1.80%左右。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一重申，目前的政策立场是适当的，但强调在持续的不确定性中需要灵活性。与此同时，随着劳动力市场降温和通胀压力（部分与美国关税有关）加剧的迹象，预计美联储今年将至少两次降息25个基点。

France’s 10-year government bond yield eased toward 3.25% as investors digested fresh economic data and growing expectations of interest rate cuts from both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Market sentiment remains cautious, with attention also focused on global trade developments ahead of US President Trump's July 9 deadline, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the economic front, France’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 0.9% in June from a more than four-year low of 0.7% in May, though it remains well below the ECB’s 2% target. Investors continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate around 1.75%–1.80%. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed on Monday that the current policy stance is appropriate but stressed the need for flexibility amid persistent uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to implement at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, as signs of a cooling labor market and inflationary pressures—partly linked to US tariffs—intensify.

CAC 40指数在周五强劲上涨1.8%后，周一几乎没有变化，降至7690左右，并有望出现月度下跌，因为投资者密切关注美国重新启动的贸易谈判。在最新的事态发展中，特朗普总统排除了延长7月9日最后期限的可能性，表示相信将及时达成协议以避免更高的关税。尽管与日本的讨论仍在继续，但在特朗普周末宣布美国将停止贸易谈判后，加拿大放弃了拟议的数字服务税。与此同时，上个月敲定的英美贸易协定于周一正式生效。最近的一项美中贸易协议也带来了谨慎的乐观情绪，尽管关键细节仍存在不确定性。市场现在期待着明天公布的法国制造业采购经理人指数。在企业方面，路威酩轩集团（-0.6%）、施耐德（-0.7%）和赛诺菲（0.6%）领跌，而欧莱雅（0.9%）和赛峰集团（1.1%）的表现优于其他公司。

The CAC 40 index was little changed to around 7,690 on Monday, following a robust 1.8% gain on Friday, and on track to post a monthly decline, as investors closely monitored renewed US trade negotiations. In the latest development, President Trump ruled out extending the July 9 deadline, expressing confidence that agreements would be reached in time to avoid higher tariffs. While discussions with Japan continue, Canada abandoned its proposed Digital Services Tax following Trump’s weekend announcement that the US would halt trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the UK-US trade agreement, finalized last month, officially came into effect on Monday. A recent US-China trade deal also offered cautious optimism, though uncertainty remains over key details. Markets now look ahead to France’s manufacturing PMI due tomorrow. On the corporate side, LVMH (-0.6%), Schneider (-0.7%), and Sanofi (-0.6%) led the losses, while Loreal (0.9%) and Safran (1.1%) outperformed.

CAC 40指数周五上涨1.8%，收于7691点，在连续两个交易日下跌后反弹，受美国与中国和其他国家贸易谈判取得进展的迹象提振，市场情绪有所改善。特朗普总统宣布，华盛顿和北京已达成协议，加快向美国运送稀土矿物，作为缓解贸易紧张局势的更广泛努力的一部分。与此同时，白宫表示，如果贸易谈判取得足够进展，原计划于7月征收的高额进口关税可能会推迟。越来越多的人猜测美联储的政策可能会变得更加温和，并预计杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能会被取代，这进一步推动了反弹。在法国，初步数据显示，6月份消费者价格意外加速，而生产者价格指数则出现了自2023年11月以来的首次年度上涨。在个股中，施耐德电气（+5.7%）、罗格朗（+4.2%）和开云集团（+3.6%）领涨。本周，CAC 40指数上涨1.8%。

The CAC 40 rose 1.8% to close at 7,691 on Friday, rebounding after two sessions of losses, supported by improved sentiment amid signs of progress in US trade talks with China and others. President Trump announced that Washington and Beijing had reached an agreement to speed up shipments of rare earth minerals to the US, as part of broader efforts to ease trade tensions. At the same time, the White House indicated that the steep import tariffs, originally planned for July, could be postponed if trade negotiations make sufficient progress. The rally was further fueled by growing speculation that Fed policy may turn more dovish, with expectations that Jerome Powell could be replaced. In France, preliminary data showed a surprise acceleration in consumer prices in June, while producer prices posted their first annual increase since November 2023. Among individual stocks, Schneider Electric (+5.7%), Legrand (+4.2%), and Kering (+3.6%) led the gains. For the week, the CAC 40 rose 1.8%.