法国10年期政府债券收益率升至3.55%，为9月初以来的最高水平，此前一周该国预算危机和全球央行决策动荡。总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努正在寻求议会批准2026年的预算，面临着越来越多的政治阻力和对计划削减开支的广泛反对。法国国债与德国国债的收益率差距扩大，给新总理增加了压力。本周早些时候，该国的长期信用评级被下调，主权收益率短暂跌破意大利，这是一个不寻常的反转。在货币政策方面，美联储在暂停九个月后降息，而日本央行保持政策稳定，但表示对今年晚些时候加息持开放态度。英格兰银行也保持借贷成本不变。

France’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.55%, the highest since early September, after a volatile week marked by the country’s budget crisis and global central bank decisions. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is seeking parliamentary approval for the 2026 budget, facing mounting political resistance and widespread opposition to planned spending cuts. France’s yield spread over German Bunds has widened, adding pressure on the new premier. Earlier this week, the country’s long-term credit rating was downgraded, and sovereign yields briefly dipped below Italy’s—an unusual inversion. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve cut rates after a nine-month pause, while the Bank of Japan kept policy steady but signaled openness to a rate hike later this year. The Bank of England also left borrowing costs unchanged.

CAC 40指数周五上涨0.6%，至7905点，连续第二周稳步上涨，因投资者评估了一波关键的货币政策决定。正如普遍预期的那样，日本央行保持利率稳定，但宣布计划逐步解除其持有的大量交易所交易基金，令市场感到意外。本周早些时候，美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息，而英格兰银行选择保持基准利率稳定。整个指数的广泛上涨进一步支撑了这一积极势头。Stellantis NV领涨CAC 40指数，在Berenberg将该股从“持有”上调至“买入”后，上涨3.5%至一个月高点。其他表现突出的公司包括雅高、空中客车、雷诺和安赛乐米塔尔，股价上涨1.5%至2.3%。在经济方面，法国9月份的商业环境指标稳定在96，低于其长期平均水平100。

The CAC 40 rose 0.6% to 7,905 on Friday, heading for its second consecutive week of solid gains as investors assessed a wave of key monetary policy decisions. The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady, as widely anticipated, but surprised markets by announcing plans to gradually unwind its substantial holdings of exchange-traded funds. Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time since December 2024, while the Bank of England opted to hold its benchmark rate steady. The positive momentum was further supported by broad-based gains across the index. Stellantis NV led the CAC 40, climbing 3.5% to a one-month high after Berenberg upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Hold.” Other notable performers included Accor, Airbus, Renault, and ArcelorMittal, with shares advancing between 1.5% and 2.3%. On the economic front, France’s business climate indicator held steady at 96 in September, staying below its long-term average of 100.

法国制造业气候指标在2025年9月降至96，与预期相符，低于8月的97，仍低于100的长期平均水平。这一下降是由过去产量下降（8月为-8比-1）和总体产量前景进一步下降（-14比-12）推动的，这是自2013年疫情年份以外的最低水平。订单总额整体疲软（-23比-20），外国需求也有所缓解（-17比-15），而成品库存回升至平均水平以上（16比11）。在就业方面，公司报告的过去劳动力水平较小（-4比-2），尽管预期略有改善（-1比-2）。个人生产前景强劲反弹（8比-4），高于平均水平，而销售价格预期小幅下降（2比3）。按行业划分，运输设备的情绪减弱，但食品和饮料以及机械设备商品的情绪有所改善，而其他制造业的情绪稳定在95，远低于历史平均水平。

France’s manufacturing climate indicator fell to 96 in September 2025, matching expectations, down from 97 in August and still below the long-term average of 100. The decline was driven by weaker past production (-8 vs -1 in August), the lowest since 2013 outside the pandemic years, and a further drop in general production prospects (-14 vs -12). Order books softened overall (-23 vs -20), with foreign demand also easing (-17 vs -15), while finished goods inventories rose back above average (16 vs 11). On employment, firms reported smaller past workforce levels (-4 vs -2), though expectations improved slightly (-1 vs -2). Personal production prospects rebounded strongly (8 vs -4), moving above average, while selling price expectations edged lower (2 vs 3). By sector, sentiment weakened in transport equipment but improved in food and beverages and in machinery and equipment goods, while other manufacturing was stable at 95, well below its historical average.

2025年9月，法国的商业环境指标稳定在96，连续第四个月保持不变，低于去年8月以来的长期平均水平100。在信息和通信反弹的推动下，服务业情绪有所改善，综合指标在经历了三个月的稳定后升至98。批发贸易也小幅回升至98，为2023年3月以来的最高水平，这得益于外国交货和订购意愿的增强。在建筑业，情况大致稳定在98，因为承包商报告了更好的过去活动，但预期较弱。与此同时，工业下滑至96，反映出订单疲软和过去的生产，尽管生产前景略有上升。此外，由于销售和前景恶化，零售和汽车贸易进一步降至92，为2022年4月以来的最低水平，尽管汽车行业略有反弹。

France’s business climate indicator remained steady at 96 in September 2025, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and stayed below the long-term average of 100 since August last year. Sentiment in services improved, with the composite indicator rising to 98 after three months of stability, driven by a rebound in information and communications. Wholesale trade also picked up slightly to 98, its highest since March 2023, supported by stronger foreign deliveries and ordering intentions. In construction, conditions were broadly stable at 98, as contractors reported better past activity but weaker expectations. Meanwhile, industry slipped to 96, reflecting softer orders and past production, though production prospects edged higher. Additionally, retail and automotive trade fell further to 92, the lowest since April 2022, as sales and outlook deteriorated, though the automotive segment saw a modest rebound.