法国10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.35%大关，此前欧洲央行在过去一年八次降息后保持利率稳定。随着欧盟和特朗普政府之间的贸易谈判继续进行，政策制定者们采取了谨慎的态度，选择观望态度，8月1日的最后期限即将到来。有报道称，欧盟和美国即将达成协议，对部分欧洲进口产品征收15%的关税，同时取消对其他国家的关税。在货币市场，到12月，25个基点的降息已被完全消化，最早在9月降息的可能性约为50%。在经济方面，法国7月商业信心小幅下降，而PMI数据显示私营部门持续收缩，尽管读数略高于预期。

France’s 10-year government bond yield climbed toward the 3.35% mark after the ECB held interest rates steady, pausing after eight cuts over the past year. Policymakers struck a cautious tone, opting for a wait-and-see approach as trade talks between the EU and the Trump administration continue, with an August 1 deadline fast approaching. Reports suggest the EU and US are nearing a deal that would introduce 15% tariffs on select European imports while removing duties on others. In the money markets, a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in by December, with roughly a 50% chance of the move happening as early as September. On the economic front, French business confidence edged lower in July, while flash PMI data pointed to continued contraction in the private sector—though the reading slightly exceeded expectations.

法国10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.3%以上，对贸易谈判的乐观情绪日益高涨，对欧洲央行即将作出的政策决定也充满期待。有报道称，欧盟和美国即将敲定一项协议，对部分欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，同时取消其他进口商品。人们普遍预计，欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率不变，因为政策制定者正在努力应对持续的贸易不确定性、欧元坚挺和通胀疲软。市场完全预计到12月将降息25个基点，最早在9月降息的可能性大致相等。在经济方面，法国7月商业信心小幅下降，而PMI数据显示私营部门持续收缩，尽管读数略高于预期。

France’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.3% amid growing optimism over trade talks and in anticipation of the European Central Bank’s upcoming policy decision. Reports suggest the EU and US are close to finalizing a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on select European imports while scrapping others. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after eight consecutive cuts, as policymakers grapple with persistent trade uncertainty, a firm euro, and subdued inflation. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut by December, with roughly even odds of that move occurring as early as September. On the economic front, French business confidence edged lower in July, while flash PMI data pointed to continued contraction in the private sector—though the reading slightly exceeded expectations.

CAC 40指数周四微涨0.3%，至7874点，延续了前一交易日的显著涨幅，因人们对潜在的美欧贸易协定越来越乐观。报告显示，欧盟即将达成一项协议，对美国出口征收15%的关税。市场参与者也在密切关注欧洲央行今天晚些时候的政策公告，预计在最近的一系列降息之后，利率不会发生变化。与此同时，财报季仍然是关注的焦点。银行股表现最佳，法国巴黎银行股价上涨2.4%，法国兴业银行股价上涨1.5%，法国农业信贷银行股价上涨1.4%，这得益于法国巴黎银行优于预期的收入和盈利报告。不利的一面是，意法半导体是当天表现最差的公司，该公司股价下跌4.9%，此前该芯片制造商报告了比预期更糟糕的第二季度亏损，对下一季度的销售额下降做出了悲观预测，并警告美国关税的持续影响。

The CAC 40 edged up 0.3% to 7,874 on Thursday, extending notable gains from the previous session amid growing optimism surrounding a potential US-EU trade agreement. Reports indicate that the EU is nearing a deal that would introduce 15% tariffs on exports to the US. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on the ECB's policy announcement later today, with no changes to interest rates anticipated following a recent series of cuts. Meanwhile, earnings season remained in focus. Banking stocks were among the top performers, with BNP Paribas jumping 2.4%, Société Générale rising 1.5%, and Crédit Agricole gaining 1.4%, buoyed by BNP Paribas’ stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings report. On the downside, STMicroelectronics was the session's worst performer, with shares falling 4.9% after the chipmaker reported a worse-than-expected Q2 loss, issued a bleak forecast for another quarter of declining sales, and warned of the ongoing impact of US tariffs.

快速估算显示，法国HCOB快速综合采购经理人指数从上个月的49.2升至2025年7月的49.6，好于市场预期的49.3。虽然这标志着连续第11个月出现收缩，但这是该序列中最温和的下降，因为制造业（6月份为48.4比48.1）和服务业（49.7比49.6）的PMI都有所放缓。尽管总体数据略有改善，但这两个行业的需求状况都有所恶化，尤其是制造业。此外，法国各地的企业在7月份继续裁员。在定价方面，7月份的数据表明通胀压力减弱，因为投入成本和产出价格的涨幅均低于各自的长期平均水平。最后，法国企业对未来一年的展望降至去年11月以来的最低水平，制造商和服务提供商的信心均大幅下降。

The HCOB Flash Composite PMI for France rose to 49.6 in July 2025 from 49.2 in the previous month, better than market expectations of 49.3, flash estimates showed. While this marked the eleventh consecutive month of contraction, it represented the mildest decline in the sequence, as downturns in both the manufacturing (48.4 vs 48.1 in June) and services (49.7 vs 49.6) PMIs moderated. Despite the modest improvement in the headline figure, demand conditions worsened across both sectors—particularly in manufacturing. Moreover, businesses across France continued to reduce their workforce in July. On the pricing front, the July data pointed to subdued inflationary pressures, as both input costs and output prices rose at rates below their respective long-term averages. Finally, French firms’ outlook for the year ahead fell to its lowest level since November of the previous year, with both manufacturers and service providers reporting significant declines in sentiment.