法国10年期OAT的收益率徘徊在3.1%左右，距离10月低点不远，因为交易员权衡了欧元区经济日益增长的下行风险、乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突的紧张局势升级，以及唐纳德·特朗普的政策和政治任命对欧洲的潜在影响。欧洲央行在其年度《金融稳定评估》中强调，地缘政治紧张局势加剧和政策不确定性正在放大主权脆弱性，而全球贸易紧张局势加剧正在增加不利经济冲击的可能性。另一方面，第三季度欧元区谈判工资同比增长5.4%，为欧元引入以来的最高水平，使欧洲央行的降息计划变得更加复杂。预计央行仍将在12月第四次降息25个基点。与此同时，在法国，政治不稳定持续存在，因为2025年的预算仍远未获得批准，马琳·勒庞的极右翼政党威胁要推翻政府。

The yield on France's 10-year OAT hovered around 3.1%, not far from October-lows, as traders weigh growing downside risks to the Eurozone economy, escalating tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies and political appointments on Europe. In its annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB highlighted that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are amplifying sovereign vulnerabilities, while rising global trade tensions are increasing the likelihood of adverse economic shocks. On the other hand, negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose 5.4% yoy in Q3, the most since the euro was introduced, complicating the ECB’s plans for interest rate cuts. The central bank is still expected to deliver its fourth 25 bps rate cut in December. Meanwhile, in France, political instability persists as the 2025 budget remains far from approval, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party threatening to bring down the government.