HCOB法国制造业采购经理人指数从5月份的49.8降至2025年6月的48.1，但高于最初估计的47.8。这标志着四个月来最大的收缩，反映出产量再次下降，新订单自2月以来下降最快，这是由于国内和国际市场需求疲软以及汽车行业持续面临的挑战造成的。新的出口订单也以更快的速度收缩，而由于需求疲软和供应商延迟，采购活动和库存减少，交货时间延长至2月以来的最低水平。在价格方面，由于供应延迟，投入成本小幅上涨，而随着竞争加剧，销售价格连续第四个月下调。尽管经济低迷，但制造商的信心提高到2022年2月以来的最高水平，连续第二个月鼓励了边际就业增长。

The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 in June 2025 from 49.8 in May, but revised above initial estimates of 47.8. This marked the steepest contraction in four months, reflecting renewed falls in production and the fastest drop in new orders since February, driven by weak demand in domestic and international markets and ongoing challenges in the automotive sector. New export orders also contracted at a quicker pace, while purchasing activity and inventories were scaled back amid weakening demand and supplier delays, with delivery times lengthening to its lowest levels since February. On prices, input costs rose modestly due to supply delays, while selling prices were cut for the fourth consecutive month as competition intensified. Despite the downturn, manufacturers’ confidence improved to its highest level since February 2022, encouraging marginal job growth for the second month running.

CAC 40指数周二下跌0.2%，至7651点左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为随着7月9日互惠关税最后期限的临近，投资者仍对美国贸易谈判的不确定性感到不安。周一，有报道显示，欧盟对其许多出口产品统一征收10%的关税持开放态度，但正在寻求美国承诺放宽关键行业的关税。欧盟贸易负责人将于本周在华盛顿推进谈判，以防止更高的关税。欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane表示，央行的紧缩周期已经结束，这增加了压力。在国内，最新数据显示，6月份工厂活动以四个月来最快的速度收缩。在企业方面，国防类股领跌，跌幅超过1%，如空客（-1.2%）和泰雷兹（-1.9%）。法国汽车制造商雷诺也下跌1.7%，此前该公司宣布预计其在日产的股份上半年将亏损95亿欧元，而其同行Stellantis下跌1.3%。

The CAC 40 index fell 0.2% to around 7,651 on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors remained on edge over uncertainty surrounding US trade talks as the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs drew near. On Monday, reports showed that the EU is open to a unified 10% tariff on many of its exports but is seeking U.S. commitments to ease duties in key sectors. The EU’s trade chief is set to advance negotiations in Washington this week in a bid to prevent steeper tariffs. Adding pressure, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. Domestically, latest data showed that factory activity contracted at the steepest pace in four months in June. On the corporate side, defense stocks led the losses, down over 1%, such as Airbus (-1.2%) and Thales (-1.9%). French carmaker Renault also slipped 1.7% after announcing it expects a €9.5 billion first-half loss on its stake in Nissan, while its peer Stellantis shed 1.3%.

周一，CAC 40指数下跌0.3%，收于7665点，部分回吐了周五1.8%的涨幅，因为投资者在欧洲和美国之间重新出现贸易紧张局势的情况下变得更加谨慎。周末，特朗普总统重申，新关税的7月9日最后期限不会延长，并表示“那些想避免关税的人知道该怎么办”。该声明增加了对日本和加拿大等合作伙伴的压力。与此同时，上个月签署的美英贸易协定正式生效，中国报告了与美国达成的一项新协议的进展，该协议涵盖技术和农业，但关键问题仍未得到解决。市场现在正在等待明天公布的法国制造业采购经理人指数。在企业方面，Stellantis（-3.0%）、雷诺（-2.4%）和施耐德电气（-1.8%）均出现亏损，而欧莱雅（+2.2%）和泰雷兹（+1.6%）的表现优于其他公司。

The CAC 40 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,665 on Monday, giving back part of Friday’s 1.8% rally, as investor caution grew amid renewed trade tensions between Europe and the US. Over the weekend, President Trump reaffirmed that there will be no extension of the July 9th deadline for new tariffs, stating that “those who want to avoid tariffs know what to do”. The statement increased the pressure on partners such as Japan and Canada. Meanwhile, the US–UK trade deal signed last month officially came into effect, and China reported progress in a new agreement with the US, covering technology and agriculture, though key issues remain unresolved. The markets are now waiting for France's manufacturing PMI to be released tomorrow. On the corporate front, Stellantis (-3.0%), Renault (-2.4%), and Schneider Electric (-1.8%) posted losses, while L’Oréal (+2.2%) and Thales (+1.6%) outperformed.

法国10年期政府债券收益率降至3.25%，因投资者消化了新的经济数据以及欧洲央行和美联储降息预期的增长。市场情绪仍然谨慎，注意力还集中在美国总统特朗普7月9日最后期限之前的全球贸易发展以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势上。在经济方面，法国6月份的年通胀率从5月份的四年多来的低点0.7%升至0.9%，尽管仍远低于欧洲央行2%的目标。投资者继续将欧洲央行的最终利率定在1.75%-1.80%左右。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一重申，目前的政策立场是适当的，但强调在持续的不确定性中需要灵活性。与此同时，随着劳动力市场降温和通胀压力（部分与美国关税有关）加剧的迹象，预计美联储今年将至少两次降息25个基点。

France’s 10-year government bond yield eased toward 3.25% as investors digested fresh economic data and growing expectations of interest rate cuts from both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Market sentiment remains cautious, with attention also focused on global trade developments ahead of US President Trump's July 9 deadline, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the economic front, France’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 0.9% in June from a more than four-year low of 0.7% in May, though it remains well below the ECB’s 2% target. Investors continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate around 1.75%–1.80%. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed on Monday that the current policy stance is appropriate but stressed the need for flexibility amid persistent uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to implement at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, as signs of a cooling labor market and inflationary pressures—partly linked to US tariffs—intensify.