法国10年期OAT收益率徘徊在3.46%左右，保持一个月来的最低水平，因为总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙宣布了一个新内阁，以遏制日益严重的政治危机。塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在辞职四天后于上周五再次获得任命，并负责提交修订后的预算。如果预算案未能通过，2026年的赤字可能会从今年预计的5.4%上升到6%左右。然而，政府本周晚些时候可能面临议会的不信任投票，这增加了法国财政前景的不确定性。在宏观方面，市场暗示欧洲央行在7月前降息25个基点的可能性已上升至约55%，而在特朗普总统威胁对中国商品征收100%关税之前，这一概率约为45%。
The yield on France’s 10-year OAT hovered around 3.46%, holding its lowest level in a month, as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a mounting political crisis. Sébastien Lecornu was reappointed last Friday, four days after his resignation, and has been tasked with submitting a revised budget. Failure to pass the budget could push the 2026 deficit to around 6%, up from the projected 5.4% for this year. However, the government could face a no-confidence vote in parliament later this week, increasing uncertainty over France’s fiscal outlook. On the macro front, market-implied probabilities of a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate cut by July have risen to roughly 55%, compared with about 45% earlier, before President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
