CAC 40指数周二上涨0.3%，收于7255点，延续了前三个交易日的涨幅，受到奢侈品和工业股上涨的推动。奢侈品品牌LVMH和爱马仕分别上涨0.5%和1.3%，此前汇丰银行预测，在美国经济蓬勃发展、选举后不确定性缓解、预期降息和中国逐步复苏的推动下，奢侈品将在2025年强劲反弹。工业巨头空中客车、赛峰、圣戈班和Stellantis的表现也优于其他公司，涨幅在1%至2.5%之间。相比之下，包括安盛在内的金融服务类股表现不佳，后者因政治和财政不稳定而下跌0.8%。法国政治动荡仍然是人们关注的焦点，极右翼和左翼政党都对总理米歇尔·巴尼耶提出不信任动议，威胁到政府的稳定。如果成功，这将标志着自1962年以来法国政府首次因这样的动议而倒台。

The CAC 40 rose 0.3% to close at 7,255 on Tuesday, building on gains from the previous three sessions, bolstered by advances in luxury and industrial stocks. Luxury names LVMH and Hermès gained 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, following HSBC's forecast of a strong luxury rebound in 2025, driven by a booming U.S. economy, easing post-election uncertainties, anticipated rate cuts, and China's gradual recovery. Industrial giants Airbus, Safran, Saint-Gobain, and Stellantis also outperformed, rising between 1% and 2.5%. In contrast, financial services stocks, including AXA, struggled, with the latter down 0.8%, pressured by political and fiscal instability. French political turmoil remained in the spotlight, with both far-right and left-wing parties filing no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, threatening the government's stability. If successful, this would mark the first time since 1962 that a French government fell due to such a motion.

2024年1月至10月，法国政府预算赤字降至1573.9亿欧元，低于去年同期的1777.1亿欧元。总收入同比增长3.9%，达到2808.8亿欧元，而支出下降1.6%，达到4279.4亿欧元。与此同时，财政部特别账户记录了103.3亿欧元的缺口，而去年同期的缺口为131.3亿欧元。

France’s government budget deficit fell to EUR 157.39 billion in the January-to-October period of 2024, down from EUR 177.71 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total revenues rose 3.9% year-on-year to EUR 280.88 billion, while expenditures fell 1.6% to EUR 427.94 billion. Meanwhile, the Treasury special accounts, which track the balance of inflow and outflows targeted revenues and outlays, for example receipts from local government, recorded a shortfall of EUR 10.33 billion, compared to a gap of EUR 13.13 billion in the same period a year earlier.

由于交易员监测到该国持续的政治动荡，法国10年期OAT的收益率在2.9%左右波动。政府周三将面临不信任投票，议会中最大的马琳·勒庞的极右翼政党预计将支持该动议。这场危机的爆发是由于对600亿欧元的增税和削减开支方案缺乏共识，促使政府援引《法国宪法》第49.3条通过社会保障预算，绕过议会批准。如果政府倒台，马克龙总统将需要任命一位新总理，这是一项具有挑战性的任务，正如今年早些时候所看到的那样。这种政治不确定性最近使法国国债相对于德国国债的风险溢价超过90个基点，达到2012年以来的最高水平。

The yield on France's 10-year OAT fluctuated around 2.9% as traders monitored ongoing political turmoil in the country. The government faces a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, with Marine Le Pen's far-right party, the largest in parliament, expected to support the motion. The crisis erupted due to a lack of consensus on a €60 billion package of tax increases and spending cuts, prompting the government to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass a social security budget, bypassing parliamentary approval. If the government falls, President Macron will need to appoint a new prime minister, a challenging task, as seen earlier this year. This political uncertainty has recently driven the French risk premium over German Bunds to over 90 basis points, marking its highest level since 2012.

法国预算余额：157.39亿欧元（10月）对173.78亿欧元。法国预算余额：157.39亿欧元（10月）对173.78亿欧元

France Budget Balance: €-157.39B (October) vs €-173.78B.France Budget Balance: €-157.39B (October) vs €-173.78B