由于交易员监测到该国持续的政治动荡，法国10年期OAT的收益率在2.9%左右波动。政府周三将面临不信任投票，议会中最大的马琳·勒庞的极右翼政党预计将支持该动议。这场危机的爆发是由于对600亿欧元的增税和削减开支方案缺乏共识，促使政府援引《法国宪法》第49.3条通过社会保障预算，绕过议会批准。如果政府倒台，马克龙总统将需要任命一位新总理，这是一项具有挑战性的任务，正如今年早些时候所看到的那样。这种政治不确定性最近使法国国债相对于德国国债的风险溢价超过90个基点，达到2012年以来的最高水平。

The yield on France's 10-year OAT fluctuated around 2.9% as traders monitored ongoing political turmoil in the country. The government faces a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, with Marine Le Pen's far-right party, the largest in parliament, expected to support the motion. The crisis erupted due to a lack of consensus on a €60 billion package of tax increases and spending cuts, prompting the government to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass a social security budget, bypassing parliamentary approval. If the government falls, President Macron will need to appoint a new prime minister, a challenging task, as seen earlier this year. This political uncertainty has recently driven the French risk premium over German Bunds to over 90 basis points, marking its highest level since 2012.

CAC 40指数周二上涨0.9%，至7299点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，受到各种股票大幅上涨的支撑。奢侈品类股领涨指数，LVMH和爱马仕各上涨2.1%，开云集团上涨近2%。此前，汇丰银行预测，在美国经济蓬勃发展、选举后不确定性缓解、预期降息和中国逐步复苏的推动下，2025年奢侈品市场将强劲反弹。在其他方面，Edenred在重申其2025年目标并将其股票回购计划在未来三年内扩大到最高6亿欧元后上涨了2%。与此同时，法国政治动荡仍然是人们关注的焦点，因为政府似乎处于崩溃的边缘。极右翼和左翼政党都对总理米歇尔·巴尼耶提出了不信任动议。如果定于周三举行的投票成功，这将标志着自1962年以来法国政府首次因这样的动议而倒台。

The CAC 40 rose 0.9% to 7,299 on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, supported by significant advances across various stocks. Luxury stocks led the index, with LVMH and Hermès each surging 2.1%, while Kering rose nearly 2%. The surge followed HSBC's forecast of a strong luxury rebound in 2025, driven by a booming U.S. economy, easing post-election uncertainties, anticipated rate cuts, and China's gradual recovery. Elsewhere, Edenred gained 2% after reaffirming its 2025 targets and extending its share buyback program to a maximum of €600 million over the next three years. Meanwhile, French political turmoil remains in focus as the government appears on the brink of collapse. Both far-right and left-wing parties have filed no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier. If the vote, scheduled for Wednesday, succeeds, it would mark the first time since 1962 that a French government falls due to such a motion.

在巴黎，CAC 40指数周二上涨61点，涨幅0.84%。Edenred（2.60%）、意法半导体（2.33%）和达索系统（2.27%）领涨。跌幅最大的是Orange（-2.81%）、Essilor（-0.56%）和Publicis（-0.15%）。

In Paris, the CAC 40 Index is picking up 61 points or 0.84 percent on Tuesday. Gains are led by Edenred (2.60%), STMicroelectronics (2.33%) and Dassault Systemes (2.27%). Biggest losers are Orange (-2.81%), Essilor (-0.56%) and Publicis (-0.15%).

法国政治打压共同货币。欧元/美元是昨日交叉汇率表现最差的货币之一。该货币对从开盘时的1.058跌至1.046。

French Politics Beat the Common Currency Down.EUR/USD was among the worst cross rate performers yesterday. The currency pair dropped as low as 1.046, down from 1.058 at the open.