欧元兑美元汇率为1.175美元,略低于2021年8月以来的最高水平,此前欧洲央行在不确定性加剧的情况下保持利率稳定,特别是在8月1日截止日期前的欧盟-美国贸易谈判中。央行今年已经四次降息,将存款利率从2024年的4%峰值降至6月的2%。尽管欧元区通胀率上个月达到了欧洲央行2%的目标,但由于地缘政治紧张局势,政策制定者在7月份暂停了行动。欧盟与其最大伙伴美国的贸易关系仍面临风险,谈判仍在进行中,高达30%的潜在关税迫在眉睫。基本情景包括美国对欧盟商品征收15%的关税,欧盟可能采取反制措施。欧盟外交官对近期的突破表示怀疑,称最后的决定权在于特朗普总统。尽管双方都在探索有限的豁免和关税削减作为可能协议的一部分,但这种不确定性正在影响人们的情绪。
The euro traded at $1.175, slightly below its highest level since August 2021, after the ECB held interest rates steady amid heightened uncertainty, especially over EU-US trade talks ahead of the August 1 deadline. The central bank has already cut rates four times this year, lowering the deposit rate from the 4% peak in 2024 to 2% in June. Despite Eurozone inflation hitting the ECB’s 2% target last month, policymakers paused in July due to geopolitical tensions. The EU’s trade relationship with the US, its largest partner, remains at risk, with negotiations ongoing and potential tariffs of up to 30% looming. The base-case scenario includes a 15% US tariff on EU goods, with possible EU countermeasures in development. EU diplomats expressed skepticism about a near-term breakthrough, stating the final call lies with President Trump. The uncertainty is weighing on sentiment, even as both sides explore limited exemptions and tariff reductions as part of a possible deal.