欧元自7月以来首次攀升至1.18美元上方，徘徊在2021年9月以来的最高水平，这得益于欧元区和德国投资者情绪强于预期，以及美元普遍疲软，因为美联储准备在本周恢复降息。市场普遍预计美联储将降息至少25个基点，因为政策制定者正在权衡劳动力市场降温与关税带来的持续通胀压力。相比之下，欧洲官员继续强调对通货膨胀的谨慎。欧洲央行执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔敦促政策制定者“保持稳健”，并警告称，从关税和服务通胀到食品价格和财政政策的风险仍然很大。斯洛伐克央行行长彼得·卡齐米尔（Peter Kazimir）呼应了这一观点，警告称忽视这些风险“将是一个错误”。欧洲央行上周连续第二次会议保持借贷成本不变，这表明其降息周期可能已经结束。

The euro climbed above $1.18 for the first time since July, hovering at its highest level since September 2021, supported by stronger-than-expected investor sentiment in both the Eurozone and Germany, alongside broad dollar weakness as the US Fed prepares to resume interest rate cuts this week. Markets broadly expect the Fed to lower rates by at least 25 bps as policymakers weigh a cooling labor market against lingering inflationary pressures from tariffs. In contrast, European officials continue to emphasize caution on inflation. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel urged policymakers to “keep a steady hand,” warning that risks ranging from tariffs and services inflation to food prices and fiscal policy remain significant. Slovak central-bank Governor Peter Kazimir echoed that view, cautioning that ignoring these risks “would be a mistake.” The ECB last week kept borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, signaling that its rate-cutting cycle may have ended.

2025年第二季度，整个欧元区的工资同比增长3.7%，高于上一季度的3.4%。在该地区最大的经济体中，德国（第一季度为3.8%对2.9%）和荷兰（第二季度为5.9%对5.7%）的工资增长明显加快。相比之下，西班牙（3.4%对3.8%）、意大利（3.4%对4.0%）和法国（1.4%对1.9%）的增长有所放缓。

Wages across the Eurozone rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from a 3.4% increase in the previous quarter. Among the region’s largest economies, wage growth accelerated notably in Germany (3.8% vs. 2.9% in Q1) and the Netherlands (5.9% vs. 5.7%). By contrast, growth eased in Spain (3.4% vs. 3.8%), Italy (3.4% vs. 4.0%), and France (1.4% vs. 1.9%).

2025年9月，欧元区ZEW经济情绪指标较上月上升1点，至26.1，高于市场预期的20.3。9月份，约51.7%的受访分析师预计经济活动不会发生变化，37.2%的人预计会有所改善，11.1%的人预计经济活动会恶化。与此同时，当前经济形势指标上升2.4点至-28.8，通胀预期上升3.3点至-3.4。

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area rose by 1 point from the prior month to 26.1 in September 2025, above market estimates of 20.3. In September, about 51.7% of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 37.2% predicted improvement and 11.1% anticipated a deterioration. In the meantime, the indicator of the current economic situation increased by 2.4 points to -28.8 and inflation expectations went up by 3.3 points to -3.4.

2025年第二季度，欧元区的小时劳动力成本同比增长3.6%，略低于初步估计的3.7%，但高于上一季度的3.4%。工资和薪水增长3.7%，而第一季度为3.5%，而社会缴款和福利等非工资成本增长3.4%，高于此前的3.2%。在各个行业中，商业经济的小时劳动力成本增长了4.0%，其中建筑业（+4.7%）、服务业（+4.3%）和工业（+3.3%）领涨。相比之下，非商业经济增长较为温和，为2.7%。在欧元区最大的经济体中，德国（3.5%对第一季度的2.5%）和荷兰（6.0%对5.9%）的劳动力成本增长有所加强。相比之下，西班牙的失业率保持稳定（3.7%），但意大利（3.8%对4.4%）和法国（1.4%对2.0%）的失业率有所放缓。

Hourly labor costs in the Euro Area increased by 3.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, a touch below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but up from 3.4% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven by a 3.7% rise in wages and salaries, compared with 3.5% in the first quarter, while non-wage costs such as social contributions and benefits climbed 3.4%, up from 3.2% previously. Across sectors, the business economy recorded a 4.0% rise in hourly labor costs, led by construction (+4.7%), services (+4.3%), and industry (+3.3%). In contrast, the non-business economy saw a more moderate increase of 2.7%. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, labor cost growth strengthened in Germany (3.5% vs. 2.5% in Q1) and the Netherlands (6.0% vs. 5.9%). In contrast, it remained stable in Spain (3.7%) but slowed in Italy (3.8% vs. 4.4%) and France (1.4% vs. 2.0%).