欧元稳定在略高于1.17美元的水平,这是自2021年9月以来的最高水平,在美联储前景更加温和和美国财政担忧加剧的情况下,美元普遍疲软。在欧洲,投资者评估了该地区最大经济体的一波通胀数据及其对欧洲央行政策路径的影响。德国6月份的消费者价格通胀率从5月份的2.1%意外降至2.0%,自2024年10月以来首次恢复到欧洲央行的目标,并打破了升至2.2%的预测。相比之下,法国、意大利和西班牙的通货膨胀略有上升,但仍然相对温和。德国零售额大幅下降,加剧了谨慎情绪。尽管信号喜忧参半,但货币市场继续将欧洲央行的最终利率定在1.75%-1.80%左右。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一重申,目前的政策立场是适当的,但强调在持续的不确定性中保持灵活性的重要性。
The euro stabilized just above $1.17, its strongest level since September 2021, supported by broad dollar weakness amid a more dovish US Fed outlook and rising US fiscal concerns. In Europe, investors assessed a wave of inflation data from the region’s largest economies and its implications for the ECB’s policy path. Germany’s consumer price inflation unexpectedly eased to 2.0% in June from 2.1% in May, returning to the ECB’s target for the first time since October 2024 and defying forecasts of a rise to 2.2%. In contrast, inflation in France, Italy, and Spain edged up slightly, though it remained relatively subdued. Adding to the cautious sentiment, German retail sales posted a sharp decline. Despite mixed signals, money markets continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate around 1.75%–1.80%. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reiterated on Monday that the current policy stance is appropriate but stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility amid lingering uncertainty.