欧元回升至1.12美元上方,受美元走软的支撑,此前美国通胀意外下降,投资者对美中贸易谈判日益谨慎,尽管两国同意90天的关税休战,以达成更广泛的协议。然而,关税仍然很高,美国对中国商品的平均关税仍徘徊在40%左右,而此前为20%。在货币政策方面,货币市场现在将欧洲央行的存款便利化利率定价为年底前1.79%,高于周五晚些时候的1.67%,低于4月中旬的1.55%。与此同时,市场几乎完全预计6月份降息的可能性为95%,因为政策制定者的目标是在美国关税上升的情况下促进经济增长。欧洲央行政策制定者François Villeroy de Galhau表示,到夏季还有再次降息的空间,而他的同事Joachim Nagel则表示乐观,并指出通胀将“很有可能”趋同于央行2%的目标。
The euro climbed back above $1.12, supported by a weaker dollar following an unexpected drop in US inflation and growing investor caution over US-China trade negotiations, despite both countries agreeing to a 90-day tariff truce to work toward a broader deal. However, tariffs remain elevated, with the average US rate on Chinese goods still hovering around 40%, compared to 20% previously. On the monetary policy front, money markets now price the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate at 1.79% by year-end, up from 1.67% late Friday and below 1.55% in mid-April. At the same time, markets are almost fully pricing in a 95% chance of a rate cut in June, as policymakers aim to bolster growth amid rising US tariffs. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau stated there was room for another rate cut by summer, while his colleague Joachim Nagel expressed optimism, noting a "good probability" that inflation would converge toward the central bank’s 2% target.