随着投资者权衡欧洲央行政策、经济数据和贸易发展，欧元一直在1.166美元左右易手，距离7月1日1.18美元的四年高点不远。欧洲央行已经比美联储降息更多，现在表示暂停降息，政策制定者强调欧元区劳动力市场的实力。此外，德国企业士气在8月份创下15个月新高，与最近乐观的经济活动数据相呼应，并减轻了今年进一步削减的压力。相比之下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示美国将于9月降息，突显出政策分歧。与此同时，欧盟与美国协议的细节显示，大多数欧洲商品面临15%的关税，但汽车、药品和芯片可能不会受到美国更严厉的征税。

The euro has been changing hands around $1.166, not far from a four-year high of $1.18 on July 1, as investors weigh ECB policy, economic data, and trade developments. The ECB, which has already cut rates more than the Fed, now signaled a pause, with policymakers stressing Eurozone labor market strength. Also, German business morale hit a 15-month high in August, echoing recent upbeat activity data and reducing pressure for further cuts this year. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September US rate cut, highlighting policy divergence. Meanwhile, details of the EU-US deal showed most European goods facing 15% tariffs, but autos, pharmaceuticals, and chips may be spared from tougher US levies.

欧洲股市周一收跌，因市场继续评估全球利率前景和最新企业新闻，削减了上周的涨幅。斯托克50指数下跌0.8%，至5444点，泛欧斯托克600指数下跌0.5%，至559点。利率期货显示，在周五的鸽派倾向之后，市场削减了美联储在即将举行的会议上预期的降息幅度，当时主席鲍威尔选择发出信号，表明劳动力疲软的更大风险需要扩张性政策。重量级银行板块大幅下跌，BBVA和法国巴黎银行分别下跌2%和3.5%，而联合信贷银行在将其对德国商业银行的综合头寸转换为实际股票后下跌0.4%。与此同时，JDE Peet’s在被Keurig Dr Pepper以157亿欧元收购后，股价飙升17.5%。最后，彪马股价飙升16%，有报道称开云集团的皮诺家族正在寻求收购该公司。

European stocks closed lower on Monday, paring the gains from the previous week as markets continued to assess the outlook on global rates and the latest corporate news. The STOXX 50 dropped 0.8% to 5,444 and the pan-European STOXX 600 fell a softer 0.5% to 559. Rate futures indicated that markets pared the magnitude of rate cuts expected by the Fed in the upcoming meetings following the dovish tilt on Friday, when Chairman Powell opted to signal that a greater risk of labor softening warranted expansionary policy. The heavyweight banking sector booked sharp declines with BBVA and BNP Paribas losing 2% and 3.5%, respectively, while UniCredit lost 0.4% after converting its synthetic position on Commerzbank to actual shares. n the meantime, JDE Peet's surged 17.5% after being acquired by Keurig Dr Pepper by €15.7 billion. Lastly, Puma surged 16% on reports that Kering's Pinault family is seeking to acquire the firm.

欧洲股市周五收高，追随美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示央行可能在即将召开的会议上降息后全球股市的上涨。斯托克50指数上涨0.5%，至5492点，为2月以来的最高点，斯托克600指数上涨0.5%至562点，距离历史高点不到2点。美联储主席指出，自上次会议以来，劳动力市场的风险得到了优先考虑，下个月可能需要降息25个基点，推动市场大量购买债券和风险较高的资产。受益于宽松金融环境前景的重量级奢侈品集团股价上涨，LVMH、爱马仕和开云集团股价上涨2.5%至1.5%。汽车生产商和科技股也上涨，Stellantis、梅赛德斯-奔驰和ASML各上涨近2%。与此同时，修订后的数据显示，德国经济在第二季度收缩幅度更大，这是由于美国公司在今年早些时候提前购买以击败关税后，制造业疲软所拖累的。

European stocks closed higher on Friday, tracking the upswing for global equity markets after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is likely to cut rates in its upcoming meeting. The STOXX 50 added 0.5% to 5,492, the highest since February, and the STOXX 600 gained 0.5% to 562, less than two points away from its record high. The Fed Chair noted that risks to the labor market gained priority since the last meeting and likely warrant a 25bps cut next month, driving markets to pile on bonds and riskier assets. Heavyweight luxury conglomerates, which benefit from the outlook of looser financial conditions, rallied with LVMH, Hermes, and Kering adding between 2.5% and 1.5%. Auto producers and tech also gained, with Stellantis, Mercedes Benz, and ASML advancing close to 2% each. Meanwhile, revised data showed Germany’s economy contracted more sharply in Q2, dragged by a weaker manufacturing sector after US firms front-loaded purchases earlier in the year to beat tariffs.

2025年第二季度，欧元区的谈判工资同比增长3.95%，高于上一季度上调的2.46%，使欧洲央行的利率路径变得更加复杂。欧洲央行强调，将通胀率降至2%的目标取决于工资增长放缓和服务业价格压力降温，而服务业的通胀率仍徘徊在3%左右。虽然德国央行注意到本季度德国工资强劲上涨，但随着通胀缓解和经济持续疲软，预计未来将出现温和增长。欧洲央行自己的薪酬追踪机构指出，明年的工资增长将放缓，这提供了一些保证。尽管如此，最近的跳跃突显了为什么政策制定者对进一步降息仍持谨慎态度。市场普遍预计，欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率保持在2%，在一年的降息后继续暂停，尽管一些官员认为，进一步降息仍应是一种选择。

Negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose by 3.95% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.46% in the previous quarter, complicating the European Central Bank’s path on interest rates. The ECB has stressed that easing inflation to its 2% target depends on slower pay gains and cooling price pressures in services, where inflation remains stuck near 3%. While the Bundesbank noted a strong rise in German wages this quarter, it also expects moderation ahead as inflation eases and the economy stays weak. The ECB’s own pay tracker points to softer wage growth into next year, offering some reassurance. Still, the recent jump underscores why policymakers remain cautious about cutting rates further. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2% in September, continuing a pause after a year of reductions, though some officials argue additional cuts should remain an option.