欧元兑美元汇率略低于1.15美元，触及三个月低点，此前欧洲央行的工资数据显示工资增长放缓，提振了人们对央行将保持利率不变的预期。欧洲央行的工资跟踪器与其谈判工资指标密切相关，显示平均工资增长从2024年的4.9%放缓至2025年的3.0%，到2026年第三季度进一步放缓至2.2%，与欧洲央行2%的通胀目标大致一致。另外，数据证实，欧元区私营部门活动以2023年5月以来的最快速度扩张。上周，欧洲央行保持利率稳定，同时保持谨慎乐观的增长前景，并保持通胀预测不变。与此同时，在鲍威尔主席发表鹰派言论以及ADP就业和ISM服务活动数据强于预期后，交易员缩减了对美联储进一步降息的押注，美元走强。
The euro traded just below $1.15, touching a three-month low, after ECB wage data signaled easing pay growth, bolstering expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged. The ECB’s wage tracker, which closely mirrors its indicator of negotiated wages, showed average wage growth slowing to 3.0% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, and further to 2.2% by Q3 2026, broadly consistent with the ECB’s 2% inflation target. Separately, data confirmed that Eurozone private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace since May 2023. Last week, the ECB held rates steady while maintaining a cautiously optimistic growth outlook and leaving its inflation forecast unchanged. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened as traders scaled back bets on additional Fed rate cuts, following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments and stronger-than-expected readings for ADP employment and ISM services activity.
