欧元跌至1.17美元，从最近四年的高点回落，因投资者涌向美元，以应对强于预期的美国就业报告。与此同时，市场消化了欧洲央行政策制定者的评论和欧洲央行最新政策会议的纪要。在欧洲央行中央银行论坛上发表讲话时，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德总统对6月份的通胀计划表示欢迎，该计划与央行2%的目标相一致，但警告称，与地缘政治紧张局势加剧和经济碎片化加剧相关的“双边风险”。其他欧洲央行官员表示，在对全球贸易不确定性、中东不稳定以及欧元最近升值的持续担忧中，自2024年6月以来，欧洲央行连续八次下调存款利率，利率可能会在本月的会议上保持不变。市场目前预计年底前只会再降息一次。

The euro slipped toward $1.17, retreating from a recent four-year high, as investors flocked to the dollar in response to a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. At the same time, markets digested comments from European Central Bank policymakers and the minutes from the ECB’s latest policy meeting. Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, President Christine Lagarde welcomed the June inflation print, which aligned with the central bank’s 2% target, but cautioned about “two-sided risks” linked to rising geopolitical tensions and increasing economic fragmentation. Other ECB officials signaled that interest rates are likely to be kept on hold at this month’s meeting, following eight consecutive cuts to the deposit rate since June 2024, amid persistent concerns over global trade uncertainty, instability in the Middle East, and the euro’s recent appreciation. Markets are now pricing in only one additional rate cut before year-end.

6月3日至5日的会议纪要显示，欧洲央行官员上个月连续第八次降息，以维护通胀预期，防止金融状况出现不必要的紧缩。政策制定者指出，全球形势“高度不确定”，持续的贸易紧张局势可能会继续并可能加剧。在这种不确定性和双向通胀冲击的风险中，官员们强调了保持灵活性和避免坚定前瞻性指引的重要性。7月份暂停的可能性越来越大，大多数官员表示，在再次采取行动之前，他们更愿意等待全球贸易谈判的更明确数据和发展。由于欧元走强、能源价格下跌以及从中国进口的廉价商品，通货膨胀率预计将在今年晚些时候降至欧洲央行2%的目标以下，并在大约18个月内保持低迷。市场现在预计年底前只会再降息一次，2026年底可能会转向紧缩。

ECB officials delivered an eighth straight interest rate cut last month to safeguard inflation expectations and prevent unwarranted tightening in financial conditions, the minutes of the June 3–5 meeting showed. Policymakers cited “highly uncertain” global conditions, with persistent trade tensions likely to continue and possibly intensify. Amid this uncertainty and the risk of inflation shocks in either direction, officials emphasized the importance of retaining flexibility and avoiding firm forward guidance. A July pause has become increasingly likely, with most officials signaling a preference to wait for clearer data and developments in global trade talks before acting again. Inflation is now projected to fall below the ECB’s 2% target later this year and remain subdued for around 18 months, due to the strong euro, lower energy prices, and cheap imports from China. Markets are now expecting just one more rate cut by year-end, with a potential pivot toward tightening in late 2026.

HCOB欧元区综合采购经理人指数在2025年6月升至50.6，高于5月份的读数和初步估计的50.2。尽管最新数据显示整体增长温和，但这标志着三个月来最强劲的扩张，这是由制造业和服务业产出增长加快推动的。爱尔兰连续第四个月领先于增长排名，其次是西班牙、意大利和德国，而法国继续落后，活动连续第十个月收缩。产出的小幅增长主要得益于积压工作的完成，积压工作已连续27个月下降。与此同时，新业务连续第13个月下降，就业增长依然疲软。在价格方面，投入成本通胀稳定在5月份的六个月低点。令人鼓舞的是，6月份商业信心进一步改善，达到2024年7月以来的最高水平，继续从4月份的18个月低点复苏。

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 50.6 in June 2025, up from both May’s reading and the preliminary estimate of 50.2. While the latest figure indicated only modest overall growth, it marked the strongest expansion in three months, driven by faster output increases across both the manufacturing and services sectors. Ireland led the growth rankings for the fourth consecutive month, followed by Spain, Italy, and Germany, while France continued to lag, recording a tenth straight monthly contraction in activity. The modest rise in output was primarily supported by the completion of backlogs of work, which declined for the 27th month in a row. Meanwhile, new business fell for the 13th consecutive month, and employment growth remained subdued. On the price front, input cost inflation held steady at May’s six-month low. Encouragingly, business confidence improved further in June, reaching its highest level since July 2024, continuing the recovery from April’s 18-month low.

HCOB欧元区服务业采购经理人指数从上个月的49.7升至2025年6月的50.5，高于50的初步估计，并坚定地高于50的初始市场预期，以反映该地区服务业活动的小幅扩张。本期产出较高，因为公司耗尽了未完成的工作，抵消了本期新业务捕获的进一步下降。尽管如此，公司仍在继续提高就业水平，将这一序列延长到四年多。在价格方面，投入成本在四个月内第三次出现疲软，尽管仍处于历史高位，促使企业三个月来最大幅度提高产出费用。展望未来，商业预期继续从4月份的低点恢复，当时美国的关税威胁危及了大部分欧元区出口客户。

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 50.5 in June of 2025 from 49.7 in the previous month, revised higher from the flash estimate of 50 and firmly above the initial market expectations of 50 to reflect a slight expansion in the area's services activity. Output was higher in the period as companies depleted their outstanding work, offsetting the further decline in new business captures in the period. Still, companies continued increasing their employment levels to extend the sequence to over four years. On the price front, input costs rose at a softer place for the third time in four months, although they remained at elevated historical levels, driving companies to raise output charges the most in three months. Looking ahead, business expectations continued to recover from April's low, when the threat of tariffs by the US jeopardized a large portion of Eurozone export clients.