欧元攀升至1.180美元以上，为2021年8月以来的最高水平，这得益于欧元区通胀已经稳定的迹象。欧盟统计局报告6月份通胀率为2%，与欧洲央行的目标相匹配，略高于5月份的1.9%。核心通胀率稳定在2.3%，而服务业通胀率上升至3.3%。这些数据强化了欧洲央行官员的观点，即通胀基本得到控制，这可能证明自2024年6月以来八次降息后暂停降息是合理的。与此同时，消费者调查显示通胀预期下降，增加了保持利率稳定的理由。美元走弱也提振了欧元，因为市场预计美联储将降息，并预计在7月9日最后期限之前美欧贸易谈判将取得进展。

The euro climbed above $1.180, its strongest level since August 2021, supported by signs that Eurozone inflation has stabilized. Eurostat reported June inflation at 2%, matching the ECB’s target and up slightly from May’s 1.9%. Core inflation remained steady at 2.3%, while services inflation ticked up to 3.3%. These figures reinforce views from ECB officials that inflation is largely under control, possibly justifying a pause in interest rate cuts after eight reductions since June 2024. Meanwhile, consumer surveys show falling inflation expectations, adding to the case for holding rates steady. The euro was also buoyed by a weaker US dollar, as markets price in Fed rate cuts and anticipate progress on US-EU trade talks ahead of a July 9 deadline.

STOXX 50和STOXX 600周二均下跌0.2%，扭转了早盘涨幅，因为投资者在7月9日互惠关税最后期限临近之前密切关注与美国的贸易谈判。彭博社报道称，欧盟对一项涉及对其许多出口产品征收10%普遍关税的协议持开放态度，但正在寻求美国在制药、酒精、半导体和商用飞机等关键领域的让步。据彭博社援引消息人士称，欧盟贸易主管预计将于本周率领代表团前往华盛顿，努力推进谈判。在数据方面，初步数据显示，欧元区通胀率如预期般为2%，保持在欧洲央行的目标水平。与此同时，欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane表示，央行最近的紧缩周期已经结束。在企业方面，雀巢（-0.2%）、爱马仕（-0.4%）、ASML控股（-0.9%）和诺和诺德（-1.1%）录得亏损，而SAP（0.3%）和LVMH（2.1%）的交易呈绿色

Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 slipped 0.2% on Tuesday, reversing early gains, as investors closely watched trade negotiations with the US ahead of the looming July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs. Bloomberg reported that the EU is open to a deal involving a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports, but is seeking concessions from the US on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. The EU’s trade chief is expected to lead a delegation to Washington this week in an effort to advance the talks, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. On the data front, preliminary figures showed Eurozone inflation came in at 2% as expected, staying at the ECB’s target. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the central bank’s recent tightening cycle has concluded. On the corporate front, Nestle (-0.2%), Hermes (-0.4%), ASML Holding (-0.9%) and Novo Nordisk (-1.1%) booked losses while SAP (0.3%) and LVMH (2.1%) traded in the green

据初步估计，2025年6月，欧元区消费者价格通胀率同比小幅上升至2.0%，高于5月份的八个月低点1.9%，符合市场预期。这一数字与欧洲央行的官方目标一致。在主要经济体中，德国的通货膨胀率意外下降，而法国和西班牙的通货膨胀率略有上升，意大利的通货膨胀率保持稳定。服务业通胀从5月份的3.2%的三年低点加速至3.3%，而能源价格的下跌从3.6%放缓至2.7%。相比之下，非能源工业品（0.5%对0.6%）和食品、酒精和烟草（3.1%对3.2%）的通货膨胀有所缓解。核心通胀率（不包括能源和食品）保持在2.3%不变，为2022年1月以来的最低水平。

Eurozone consumer price inflation rose slightly to 2.0% year-on-year in June 2025, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with market expectations, according to a preliminary estimate. The figure aligns with the European Central Bank’s official target. Among major economies, inflation in Germany unexpectedly declined, while France and Spain saw modest increases and Italy’s rate held steady. Services inflation accelerated to 3.3%, up from May’s three-year low of 3.2%, while the decline in energy prices softened to 2.7% from 3.6%. In contrast, inflation eased for non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs. 0.6%) and for food, alcohol, and tobacco (3.1% vs. 3.2%). Core inflation—which excludes energy and food—was unchanged at 2.3%, marking its lowest level since January 2022.

2025年5月，欧元区消费者通胀预期中值降至2.8%，为三个月来最低，而4月份为3.1%。对未来三年的预期也从2.5%降至2.4%，而对未来五年的通胀预期连续第六个月保持不变，为2.1%。此外，通胀预期的不确定性有所降低，年轻受访者继续报告称，他们对通胀的看法和预期低于年长受访者。与此同时，消费者对未来12个月名义收入增长的预期从0.9%上升到1%，但预计名义支出增长从3.7%下降到3.5%。未来12个月的经济增长预期变得不那么消极，5月份为-1.1%，而4月份为-1.9%。对未来12个月中失业率的预期从4月份的10.5%降至10.4%。

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone fell to 2.8% in May 2025, the lowest in three months, compared to 3.1% in April. Expectations for three years ahead also decreased to 2.4% from 2.5% while expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.1% for the sixth consecutive month. In addition, uncertainty about inflation expectations decreased, with younger respondents continuing to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents. Meanwhile, consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1% from 0.9% but expected nominal spending growth went down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became less negative, standing at -1.1% in May compared with -1.9% in April. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 10.4% from 10.5% in April.