3月初，欧元升至1.04美元，从周五触及的两周低点1.036美元反弹，因为欧元区国防开支可能增加的消息提振了市场情绪。此前，英国首相基尔·斯塔默宣布，在上周美国总统特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基在椭圆形办公室紧张交锋后，由英国和法国领导的“自愿联盟”将结束乌克兰冲突。德国可能在增加国防开支方面发挥关键作用，有报道称，德国将为国防和基础设施提供新的专项资金。投资者现在正在等待欧洲央行的政策会议，预计将连续第五次降息。与此同时，2月份欧元区通胀率小幅降至2.4%，但仍高于预期，而核心通胀率降至2.6%，为2022年1月以来的最低水平，但略高于预期。

The euro rose to $1.04 at the start of March, rebounding from a two-week low of $1.036 touched on Friday, as news of potential increases in Eurozone defense spending lifted sentiment. This followed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement of a "coalition of the willing," led by the UK and France, to end the Ukraine conflict after last week’s tense Oval Office exchange between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Germany may play a key role in boosting defense spending, with reports suggesting new special funds for defense and infrastructure. Investors now await the ECB’s policy meeting, where a fifth consecutive rate cut is expected. Meanwhile, Euro Area inflation eased slightly to 2.4% in February, though still above forecasts, while core inflation fell to 2.6%, the lowest since January 2022 but slightly higher than expected.

据初步估计，欧元区的年通货膨胀率在2025年2月降至2.4%，低于1月份2.5%的六个月高点，但略高于市场预期的2.3%。服务业（3.7%对1月份的3.9%）和能源（0.2%对1.9%）的价格增长放缓，而未加工食品（3.1%对1.4%）和非能源工业品（0.6%对0.5%）的通货膨胀率上升。核心通胀率（不包括波动的食品和能源价格）也降至2.6%，略高于市场预测的2.5%，但仍为2022年1月以来的最低水平。

The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area eased to 2.4% in February 2025, down from a six-month high of 2.5% in January but slightly above market expectations of 2.3%, according to a preliminary estimate. Price growth slowed for services (3.7% vs. 3.9% in January) and energy (0.2% vs. 1.9%), while inflation picked up for unprocessed food (3.1% vs. 1.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.6% vs. 0.5%). The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also eased to 2.6%, slightly above market forecasts of 2.5% but still marking its lowest level since January 2022.

HCOB欧元区制造业采购经理人指数在2025年2月升至47.6，超过了初步估计的47.3，比1月份的46.6有所改善。虽然该行业仍处于收缩状态，但衰退是自2023年初以来最温和的。德国、法国、意大利和奥地利的下降速度较慢，而荷兰在经历了七个月的收缩后趋于稳定，爱尔兰的扩张更为强劲。相比之下，西班牙的工厂活动一年多来首次萎缩。制造业产出以九个月来最慢的速度下降，而新订单以近三年来最疲软的速度下降。然而，裁员速度加快至四年半以来的最快水平。在成本方面，投入价格通胀攀升至六个月高点。最后，商业乐观情绪是自三年前俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来最强烈的乐观情绪之一。

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in February 2025, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 47.3 and improving from January’s 46.6. While the sector remained in contraction, the downturn was the mildest since early 2023. Germany, France, Italy, and Austria saw slower rates of decline, while the Netherlands stabilized after seven months of contraction, and Ireland recorded stronger expansion. In contrast, Spain’s factory activity shrank for the first time in over a year. Manufacturing output fell at the slowest pace in nine months, while new orders declined at their softest rate in nearly three years. However, job shedding accelerated to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years. On the cost front, input price inflation climbed to a six-month high. Finally, business optimism was among the strongest seen since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

3月初，欧元小幅上涨至1.04美元，从周五触及的两周低点1.036美元反弹，此前有消息称，由于乌克兰重新努力实现和平，整个欧元区的国防开支可能会增加。上周末，英国首相基尔·斯塔默宣布成立由英国和法国领导的“自愿联盟”，旨在结束上周美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和乌克兰总统沃洛德米尔·泽连斯基在椭圆形办公室发生公开冲突后乌克兰持续的冲突。与此同时，德国可能在欧洲国防开支激增中发挥核心作用，因为有报道称，基民盟/基社盟和社民党正在考虑设立两个专门用于国防和基础设施投资的特别基金。投资者也在密切关注本周的欧洲央行政策会议，预计政策制定者将宣布连续第五次降息，并预示未来将进一步放松。

The euro edged higher to $1.04 at the start of March, rebounding from a two-week low of $1.036 touched on Friday, following news of a potential increase in defense spending across the Eurozone, spurred by renewed efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine. Over the weekend, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a "coalition of the willing," led by the UK and France, aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in Ukraine after a public clash last week between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office. Meanwhile, Germany could play a central role in Europe’s defense spending surge, as reports suggest that the CDU/CSU and SPD are considering establishing two special funds dedicated to defense and infrastructure investment. Investors are also closely watching this week’s European Central Bank policy meeting, where policymakers are expected to announce a fifth consecutive rate cut and signal further easing ahead.