欧元跌至1.052美元,为2023年10月中旬以来的最低水平,受到美元普遍走强、俄罗斯和乌克兰之间紧张局势加剧以及对欧元区经济下行风险日益担忧的压力。有报道称,乌克兰首次向俄罗斯发射了英国巡航导弹。与此同时,欧洲央行在其年度《金融稳定评估》中强调,地缘政治紧张局势加剧和政策不确定性正在放大主权脆弱性,而全球贸易紧张局势加剧正在增加不利经济冲击的可能性。另一方面,第三季度欧元区谈判工资同比增长5.4%,为欧元引入以来的最高水平,使欧洲央行的降息计划变得更加复杂。预计央行仍将在12月第四次降息25个基点。
The Euro fell to $1.052, the lowest level since mid-October 2023, pressured by a general dollar strength, mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and growing concerns about downside risks to the Eurozone economy. Reports emerged that Ukraine had fired UK cruise missiles into Russia for the first time. Meanwhile in its annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB highlighted that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are amplifying sovereign vulnerabilities, while rising global trade tensions are increasing the likelihood of adverse economic shocks. On the other hand, negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose 5.4% yoy in Q3, the most since the euro was introduced, complicating the ECB’s plans for interest rate cuts. The central bank is still expected to deliver its fourth 25 bps rate cut in December.