欧元跌破1.16美元,延续了周一1.3%的跌幅,这是两个多月来最大的单日跌幅,并触及6月20日以来的最低水平。此举反映出投资者越来越担心,美国和欧盟之间新宣布的贸易协议对美国的利益不成比例,对改善欧元区的经济前景几乎没有帮助。该协议引起了法国的强烈批评,而包括德国总理默茨在内的其他人则强调了对欧洲出口商的潜在负面影响,进而对经济增长产生了负面影响。与此同时,市场参与者将注意力转向了美联储将于周三做出的政策决定,就在特朗普总统8月1日关税最后期限之前。在欧洲,降息预期也发生了变化,市场将降息25个基点的可能性推迟到2026年3月,目前预计届时降息的可能性为90%。12月,降息的可能性已降至70%以下。
The euro slipped below $1.16, extending Monday’s 1.3% decline—the sharpest one-day drop in over two months—and hitting its weakest level since June 20. The move reflected growing investor concern that the newly announced trade deal between the US and the European Union disproportionately benefits the US, offering little to improve the eurozone’s economic outlook. The agreement has drawn strong criticism from France, while others—including German Chancellor Merz—have emphasized the potential negative impact on European exporters and, by extension, economic growth. Meanwhile, market participants turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's policy decision due Wednesday, just ahead of President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. In Europe, rate cut expectations also shifted, with markets postponing the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut to March 2026, now pricing in a 90% chance by then. For December, the probability of a cut has fallen below 70%.