欧元兑美元汇率略高于1.15美元,徘徊在6月20日以来的最低水平附近,投资者正在处理一波经济数据,并期待美联储周三的政策决定。欧盟统计局最新数据显示,第二季度欧元区经济温和增长0.1%,与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓,但超过了平稳增长的预期。西班牙和法国表现优异,分别增长0.7%和0.3%,而德国和意大利各收缩0.1%。在西班牙,7月份的通货膨胀率比预期的要高。在贸易方面,投资者情绪仍然谨慎,因为人们担心新宣布的美欧贸易协定有利于美国,对欧元区疲软的前景提供了有限的缓解。与此同时,对欧洲央行降息的预期被进一步推迟。市场现在认为,到2026年3月降息25个基点的可能性为90%,而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。
The euro held just above $1.15, hovering near its weakest level since June 20, as investors processed a wave of economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Fresh Eurostat figures showed the Eurozone economy grew by a modest 0.1% in Q2, slowing sharply from 0.6% in Q1 but surpassing expectations of flat growth. Spain and France outperformed, expanding by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, while Germany and Italy each contracted by 0.1%. In Spain, inflation rose more than expected in July. On the trade front, investor sentiment remained cautious amid concerns that the newly announced US-EU trade agreement favors the US, offering limited relief for the eurozone's sluggish outlook. Meanwhile, expectations for ECB rate cuts were pushed further out. Markets now price in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by March 2026, while the probability of a move in December has slipped to 30%.