在美元走强的压力下，欧元继续下跌至1.14美元，为6月中旬以来的最低水平，交易员对美联储的最新政策决定做出了反应。美联储按预期保持联邦基金利率不变，但主席鲍威尔指出，尚未就9月做出任何决定，他的鹰派语气降低了对下次会议降息的预期。与此同时，最新数据显示，欧元区经济在第二季度温和增长0.1%，较第一季度的0.6%大幅放缓，但仍超出无增长的预期。然而，数据显示了不对称性，德国和意大利的GDP收缩了0.1%，而法国和西班牙则出现了扩张。此外，投资者仍然担心最近宣布的美欧贸易协定对美国的利益不成比例。对欧洲央行降息的预期也被进一步推迟。市场现在认为，到2026年3月，降息25个基点的可能性为90%，而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。

The euro extended its decline to $1.14—the lowest level since mid-June—under pressure from a stronger dollar, as traders reacted to the Fed’s latest policy decision. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected but Chair Powell noted that no decisions had been made regarding September, and his hawkish tone dampened expectations for a rate cut at the next meeting. Meanwhile, fresh figures showed the Eurozone economy grew a modest 0.1% in Q2, slowing sharply from 0.6% in Q1 but still exceeding expectations of no growth. However, the data revealed asymmetries, with GDP in Germany and Italy contracting by 0.1%, while France and Spain recorded expansions. In addition, investors remain concerned that the recently announced US-EU trade agreement disproportionately benefits the US. Expectations for ECB rate cuts have also been pushed further out. Markets now assign a 90% probability of a 25bps cut by March 2026, while the likelihood of a move in December has fallen to 30%.