欧元在早些时候触及七周低点1.139美元后反弹至1.15美元以上，这得益于低于预期的美国就业报告，该报告加剧了人们对美联储9月份降息的预期。美国7月份非农就业人数增加了73000人，低于10万人的预期，而5月和6月的就业数据也大幅下调。因此，市场现在认为美联储9月降息的可能性为75%，远高于报告前的45%。在欧洲，欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性似乎较小，因为预计通胀率在短期内将保持在央行的预测之上。尽管如此，市场已经预计到12月欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性为60%，高于美国数据公布前的50%。最近的数据显示，7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%，略高于市场预期的1.9%。投资者还考虑了新宣布的美国关税的影响，该关税对欧盟对美国的出口征收15%的关税。

The euro rebounded above $1.15 after earlier hitting a seven-week low of $1.139, boosted by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report that intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, falling short of the 100,000 forecast, while May and June’s job numbers were also revised sharply lower. Consequently, markets now assign a 75% probability to a September Fed rate cut, up sharply from 45% before the report. In Europe, further ECB rate cuts seem less likely as inflation is expected to stay above the central bank’s projections in the near term. Nonetheless, markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut by December, up from 50% prior to the US data release. Recent figures showed eurozone consumer inflation steady at 2.0% in July, slightly exceeding the 1.9% expected by markets. Investors also factored in the impact of newly announced US tariffs, which impose a 15% duty on EU exports to the US.

据初步估计，2025年7月，欧元区消费者价格通胀率同比稳定在2.0%，与6月持平，但略高于市场预期的1.9%。这标志着通货膨胀率连续第二个月与欧洲央行的官方目标保持一致。服务业通胀放缓（3.1%对6月份的3.3%）有助于抵消食品、烟酒（3.3%对3.1%）和非能源工业品（0.8%对0.5%）价格的快速上涨。能源价格继续下跌，在6月份下跌2.6%后下跌2.5%。与此同时，核心通胀率（不包括能源、食品、酒精和烟草）保持不变，为2.3%，为2022年1月以来的最低水平。

Eurozone consumer price inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in July 2025, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This marks the second consecutive month that inflation has aligned with the European Central Bank’s official target. A slowdown in services inflation (3.1% vs 3.3% in June) helped offset faster price increases in food, alcohol & tobacco (3.3% vs 3.1%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%). Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 2.5% following a 2.6% drop in June. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—remained unchanged at 2.3%, its lowest level since January 2022.

HCOB欧元区制造业采购经理人指数在2025年7月确认为49.8，高于6月的49.5，标志着该行业自2022年7月以来最慢的收缩，并预示着趋于稳定。产出继续增长，尽管增速为3月以来的最低水平，而新订单再次下降，反映出出口需求持续疲软。在就业方面，失业率降至2023年6月以来的最低水平。价格压力保持温和，商业信心略有下降，但仍高于长期平均水平。在国家层面，爱尔兰引领欧元区制造业，而荷兰、西班牙和希腊也实现了稳健增长。在其他地方，采购经理人指数有所改善，但仍低于50.0的阈值，表明收缩放缓。德国的采购经理人指数（PMI）达到近三年来的最高点，而法国和奥地利的表现在欧盟中最为疲软。

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 49.8 in July 2025, up from 49.5 in June, marking the slowest contraction in the sector since July 2022 and signaling a move toward stabilization. Output continued to grow, albeit at the weakest pace since March, while new orders declined again, reflecting ongoing weakness in export demand. On the employment front, job shedding eased to its slowest rate since June 2023. Price pressures remained muted, and business confidence dipped slightly but stayed above the long-term average. At the country level, Ireland led euro area manufacturing, while the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece also saw solid growth. Elsewhere, PMI readings improved but remained below the 50.0 threshold, signaling slower contraction. Germany’s PMI reached a near three-year high, while France and Austria recorded the weakest performance in the bloc.

8月的第一个交易日，STOXX 50指数下跌1.1%，STOXX 600指数下跌0.8%，恰逢各国与美国达成贸易协议的最后期限。作为回应，特朗普总统宣布了一系列全面的关税。虽然基准税率保持在10%不变，与4月份征收的关税相匹配，但对某些国家的关税大幅增加，包括印度（25%）、加拿大（35%）和瑞士（39%）。总体而言，美国的平均关税率将从2024年的2%左右升至15%。在特朗普总统致函包括美国公司在内的17家制药商要求降低价格后，制药股也面临压力。诺和诺德下跌4.4%，诺华下跌0.9%，阿斯利康下跌3.6%。与此同时，安盛在报告净收入下降后下跌了6%，而戴姆勒卡车在下调关键预测后下跌了近6%。从更积极的方面来看，国际航空集团上涨1.8%，利润超出预期。

The STOXX 50 dropped 1.1% and the STOXX 600 declined 0.8% on the first trading day of August, which coincided with the deadline for countries to reach a trade deal with the US. In response, President Trump announced a series of sweeping tariffs. While the baseline rate remained unchanged at 10%—matching duties imposed in April—tariffs on certain countries were significantly increased, including India (25%), Canada (35%), and Switzerland (39%). Overall, the average US tariff rate will rise to 15%, up from around 2% in 2024. Pharmaceutical stocks also came under pressure after President Trump sent letters to 17 drugmakers, including US firms, demanding lower prices. Novo Nordisk fell 4.4%, Novartis declined 0.9%, and AstraZeneca dropped 3.6%. Meanwhile, Axa tumbled 6% after reporting a decline in net income, while Daimler Truck sank nearly 6% after cutting key forecasts. On a more positive note, International Airlines Group rose 1.8% as its profit exceeded expectations.