2025年6月，欧元区消费者通胀预期中值连续第二个月降至2.6%，为四个月来的最低水平，而5月份为2.8%。未来三年的预期保持不变，为2.4%，而未来五年的通胀预期连续第七个月稳定在2.1%。年轻的受访者继续报告称，他们对通胀的看法和预期低于年长的受访者，尽管这一差距比前几年缩小了。与此同时，消费者对未来12个月名义收入增长的预期在6月份保持不变，为1%，但预计名义支出增长从5月份的3.5%进一步降至3.2%。此外，未来12个月中的经济增长预期变得不那么消极（-1%对-1.1%），对未来12月失业率的预期从10.4%小幅降至10.3%

Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone fell for a second consecutive month to 2.6% in June 2025, the lowest in four months, compared to 2.8% in May. Expectations for three years ahead were unchanged at 2.4%, while expectations for inflation five years ahead held steady at 2.1% for the seventh consecutive month. Younger respondents continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents, although the gap was narrower than in previous years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1% in June but expected nominal spending growth decreased further to 3.2% from 3.5% in May. In addition, economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became less negative (-1% vs -1.1%) and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead edged down to 10.3% from 10.4%

欧洲股市周二走高，STOXX 50指数上涨0.5%，STOXX 600指数上涨0.3%，从上一交易日的下跌中反弹，因为投资者的注意力转向了企业盈利。飞利浦领涨，在上调全年指引后上涨约10%。EssilorLuxottica的股价也上涨了5%以上，此前该公司报告称，尽管面临与关税相关的不利因素，但上半年营业利润有所增长。阿斯利康在财报公布后上涨0.6%，巴克莱公布了好于预期的利润，并宣布了10亿英镑的股票回购，但其股价小幅下跌0.2%。在该公司将于当天晚些时候公布季度业绩之前，欧莱雅徘徊在平稳线附近。与此同时，汽车行业喜忧参半，交易员继续评估周末达成的美欧贸易协议。梅赛德斯-奔驰和宝马均上涨近0.3%，而大众则下跌0.7%。Stellantis股价下跌2.9%，此前该公司公布上半年净亏损23亿欧元。

European stocks traded higher on Tuesday, with the STOXX 50 rising 0.5% and the STOXX 600 up 0.3%, rebounding from losses in the previous session as investor focus shifted to corporate earnings. Philips led the gains, jumping around 10% after raising its full-year guidance. Shares of EssilorLuxottica also climbed over 5% after the company reported a rise in first-half operating profit despite facing tariff-related headwinds. AstraZeneca added 0.6% following its earnings release, and Barclays posted better-than-expected profits and announced a £1 billion share buyback but its shares edged 0.2% lower. L'Oréal hovered near the flatline ahead of the company’s quarterly results, due later in the day. Meanwhile, the auto sector was mixed, with traders continuing to assess the US-EU trade deal reached over the weekend. Mercedes-Benz and BMW both were up nearly 0.3% while VW declined 0.7%. Stellantis sank 2.9% after reporting a first-half net loss of €2.3 billion.

欧元跌破1.16美元，延续了周一1.3%的跌幅，这是两个多月来最大的单日跌幅，并触及6月20日以来的最低水平。此举反映出投资者越来越担心，美国和欧盟之间新宣布的贸易协议对美国的利益不成比例，对改善欧元区的经济前景几乎没有帮助。该协议引起了法国的强烈批评，而包括德国总理默茨在内的其他人则强调了对欧洲出口商的潜在负面影响，进而对经济增长产生了负面影响。与此同时，市场参与者将注意力转向了美联储将于周三做出的政策决定，就在特朗普总统8月1日关税最后期限之前。在欧洲，降息预期也发生了变化，市场将降息25个基点的可能性推迟到2026年3月，目前预计届时降息的可能性为90%。12月，降息的可能性已降至70%以下。

The euro slipped below $1.16, extending Monday’s 1.3% decline—the sharpest one-day drop in over two months—and hitting its weakest level since June 20. The move reflected growing investor concern that the newly announced trade deal between the US and the European Union disproportionately benefits the US, offering little to improve the eurozone’s economic outlook. The agreement has drawn strong criticism from France, while others—including German Chancellor Merz—have emphasized the potential negative impact on European exporters and, by extension, economic growth. Meanwhile, market participants turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's policy decision due Wednesday, just ahead of President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. In Europe, rate cut expectations also shifted, with markets postponing the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut to March 2026, now pricing in a 90% chance by then. For December, the probability of a cut has fallen below 70%.

欧元兑美元跌至1.16，为2025年6月以来的最低水平。在过去的4周里，欧元兑美元下跌了1.88%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了6.93%。

EURUSD decreased to 1.16, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar lost 1.88%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.93%.