欧元升至1.175美元，相对接近2021年8月以来的最高水平，因有迹象表明美国和欧盟即将达成贸易协议。报道显示，欧盟外交官将同意美国征收15%的关税。如果得到证实，此举将阻止美国像以前威胁的那样对欧盟商品征收30%的关税，以限制贸易战的损害，贸易战放大了欧盟的增长威胁。美国贸易战给欧洲经济活动带来的逆风促使市场认为，在通胀可能低于目标的风险下，欧洲央行可能会对其前景做出温和调整。周四，人们普遍预计欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率不变，利率期货定价将在年底前再降息25个基点。相反，美联储今年将两次降息25个基点。

The euro rose to $1.175, remaining relatively close to its highest level since August 2021 amid signs of an imminent trade agreement between the US and the EU. Reports indicated that EU diplomats were set to agree on 15% tariffs by the US. If confirmed, the move would prevent the US from setting tariffs on 30% on EU goods, as previously threatened, to limit damages of the trade war that magnified the bloc's growth threats. Headwinds to European economic activity stemmed from US trade war had driven markets to consider that the ECB could make dovish adjustments to its outlook amid the risk that inflation could undershoot its target. On Thursday, the ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after eight consecutive cuts, with rate futures pricing another 25bps cut to be delivered by the end of the year. Conversely, two 25bps rate cuts are priced by the Fed this year.

周三，欧洲股市收盘走高，停止了三个交易日的下跌，这得益于押注美国在与日本达成新的贸易协议后可能会接受较低的关税。欧元区STOXX 50指数上涨1.1%，至5350点，泛欧STOXX 600指数上涨1.1%.至550点。特朗普总统将对日本的关税从最初的25%降至15%，尽管没有关于欧盟和美国之间贸易谈判取得实质性进展的报道。对日本汽车关税的进展使宝马、斯特兰蒂斯、梅赛德斯-奔驰和大众汽车的股价上涨了9%至4%。日本对汽车生产商有很大的敞口。与此同时，Prosus在更新其股票回购计划后上涨了4.5%。此外，联合信贷银行在公布业绩后上涨了3.5%，尽管该行表示，来自罗马的反对促使该行放弃了对Banco BPM的收购。另一方面，SAP股价下跌4.3%，低于预期，诺基亚股价在公布业绩后下跌7%。

European stocks closed firmly higher on Wednesday to halt three sessions of losses, supported by bets that the US may settle for lower tariff rates following their fresh trade deal with Japan. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 rose 1.1% to 5,350 and the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 1.1% to 550. President Trump lowered tariffs on Japan to 15% from the initial threat of 25%, although there were no reports of substantial progress of trade negotiations between the EU and the US. The progress on auto tariffs with Japan, which have large exposure to auto producers, lifted shares of BMW, Stellantis, Mercedes Benz, and Volkswagen between 9% and 4%. In the meantime, Prosus added 4.5% after updating its share buyback program. Also, UniCredit jumped 3.5% after posting results, although it stated that opposition from Rome drove the bank to abandon its takeover of Banco BPM. On the other hand, SAP dropped 4.3% on a less ambitious than expected guidance, and Nokia sank 7% after posting results.

据初步估计，欧元区消费者信心指数从6月份的-15.3上升到2025年7月的-14.7，上升了0.6，超过了市场预期的-15。尽管如此，消费者信心指数仍远低于长期平均水平。与此同时，整个欧盟的消费者士气也上升了0.3个百分点，达到-14.5。

The Euro Area consumer confidence indicator rose by 0.6 to -14.7 in July 2025 from -15.3 in June and beating market expectations of -15, according to a preliminary estimate. Still, consumer confidence continues to score well below its long-term average. Meanwhile, consumer morale across the European Union also increased by 0.3 points to -14.5.

欧元兑美元汇率高于1.17美元，仍接近2021年8月以来的最高水平，因为在美日协议宣布后，人们对美国和欧盟之间可能达成的贸易协议越来越乐观。然而，在华盛顿和布鲁塞尔重启关税谈判之前，投资者仍持谨慎态度，有报道称，欧盟正在准备反制措施，以防谈判在8月1日截止日期前陷入僵局。与此同时，市场关注的是周四欧洲央行的政策决定和欧元区最大经济体发布的PMI预览数据。人们普遍预计，欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率不变，因为政策制定者正在权衡美国关税高于预期和欧元走强对增长和通胀的潜在影响。货币市场完全预计到12月将降息25个基点，最早在9月降息的可能性约为50%。

The euro traded above $1.17, remaining close to its highest level since August 2021, as optimism grew over a potential trade agreement between the US and the European Union following the announcement of a US-Japan deal. However, investor caution lingered ahead of renewed tariff negotiations between Washington and Brussels, amid reports that the EU is preparing countermeasures in case talks stall before the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, markets are focused on Thursday’s European Central Bank policy decision and the release of flash PMI data from the eurozone’s largest economies. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after eight consecutive cuts, as policymakers weigh the potential impact of steeper-than-expected US tariffs and a stronger euro on growth and inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by December, with roughly a 50% chance of it coming as early as September.