周五,中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.75%左右,触及六周低点,受进一步政策宽松的预期和美中贸易紧张局势的影响。9月份的数据显示,消费者价格和生产者价格持续面临通缩压力,这为中国央行提供了更多进一步宽松的空间。市场注意力现在转向下周中国第三季度GDP和LPR利率决定。据估计,中国经济在第三季度可能以一年来最慢的速度增长,预计放缓将加剧,并可能威胁到官方增长目标,增加新刺激措施的压力。与此同时,北京最近指责华盛顿故意加剧对稀土管制的恐慌,而美国官员警告称,此类措施可能会扰乱全球供应链,加剧了人们对两国总统预期会晤前紧张局势加剧的担忧。
China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.75% on Friday, hitting a six-week low, weighed down by expectations of further policy easing and ongoing US–China trade tensions. September’s data showed persistent deflationary pressures for both consumer and producer prices, giving the PBoC more room for additional easing. Market attention is now shifting to China’s Q3 GDP and LPR rate decision next week. Estimates suggest that China’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in a year during the third quarter, with the slowdown expected to intensify and potentially threaten the official growth target, increasing pressure for new stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Beijing recently accused Washington of deliberately fueling panic over rare earth controls, while US officials warned that such measures could disrupt global supply chains, heightening concerns about deepening tensions ahead of an expected meeting between the two presidents.