中美关系在平静与冲突之间摇摆不定。全球市场陷入了犹豫不决的循环，波动性居高不下，情绪几乎每天都在变化。紧张的美中关系继续推动市场情绪，在短暂的乐观和新的敌意之间交替。

Volatility Persists as U.S.–China Relations Teeter Between Calm and Conflict.Global markets are caught in a cycle of indecision, with volatility staying elevated and sentiment shifting almost daily. The strained U.S.–China relationship continues to drive market mood, alternating between brief moments of optimism and renewed hostility.

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday reiterated the need to boost domestic consumption to reduce China’s reliance on exports, signaling top leaders’ concerns over economic resilience. Speaking at a seminar with analysts and entrepreneurs, Li urged the country to “continuously form new growth points for expanding domestic demand,” according to China Central Television. He also called for curbing “disorderly competition,” highlighting efforts to rein in price wars that hinder industrial development. In a veiled reference to global tensions, including with the U.S., Li stressed that China’s economy must remain resilient amid external changes. His remarks come as policymakers prepare the 2026–2030 five-year plan, in which consumption is expected to play a central role. In June, Li described China as “a mega-sized consumer powerhouse on top of its solid foundation as a manufacturing power.”

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China’s 10-year government bond yield traded around 1.75% on Wednesday, remaining near a one-month low, as persistent deflationary pressures fueled expectations of further policy easing. Consumer prices declined more than expected in September, although the pace of the drop moderated slightly compared to August. Meanwhile, producer prices remained in deflation for a third consecutive year in August, albeit contracting at a slower rate than in July. On the trade front, President Donald Trump stated that the US may consider concluding specific trade ties with China, particularly those involving cooking oil. This followed Beijing’s decision to sanction five US subsidiaries of South Korea’s shipping giant Hanwha Ocean, citing their role in Washington’s ongoing investigation into China’s maritime and shipbuilding industries. Still, President Trump is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month in a bid to ease tensions.

周三，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.12左右，结束了三个交易日的下跌，中国人民银行重申了其维护货币稳定的承诺。央行继续将人民币每日参考汇率设定在明显高于市场预期的水平，旨在缓解美中贸易紧张局势升级对更广泛的经济和地缘政治影响。在经济方面，最新的通胀数据表明经济持续疲软，这反映在持续的通缩压力上。9月份消费者价格下跌幅度超过预期，但跌幅较8月份略有放缓。与此同时，8月份生产者价格指数连续第三年处于通货紧缩状态，尽管速度比7月份慢。从外部来看，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在10月底的政策会议上表示对潜在的降息持开放态度后，人民币从疲软的美元中获得了额外的支撑。

The offshore yuan rose to around 7.12 per dollar on Wednesday, snapping a three-session decline, as the People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining currency stability. The central bank continued setting the daily yuan reference rate at levels notably stronger than market expectations, aiming to mitigate the broader economic and geopolitical repercussions of escalating US-China trade tensions. On the economic front, the latest inflation data pointed to continued weakness, reflected in persistent deflationary pressures. Consumer prices fell more than expected in September, though the decline moderated slightly from August. Meanwhile, producer prices remained in deflation for a third consecutive year in August, albeit at a slower pace than in July. Externally, the yuan found additional support from a weakening US dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled openness to a potential interest rate cut at the late-October policy meeting.