加元兑美元汇率升至1.39加元，因为市场消化了加拿大央行将25个基点下调至2.25%的消息，更重要的是，加拿大央行的有条件前瞻性指引将此举视为宽松政策的预期终点，而不是开放式宽松周期的开始。加拿大的宏观情况解释了这种谨慎：第二季度国内生产总值收缩了1.6%，劳动力市场疲软，失业率接近7.1%，尽管出现了一次性6万人的意外工资，而整体CPI同比为2.4%，银行的微调措施约为3.1%。因此，交易员将降息视为已定价，并关注中国银行的信息，即进一步宽松将取决于数据，这一立场限制了对加元持续政策驱动疲软的预期。与此同时，美元走软和石油稳定缓解了美元的外部压力，但美国持续的贸易和关税不确定性仍然是经济增长和汇率的切实下行风险。

The Canadian dollar strengthened toward C$1.39 per US dollar as markets digested the Bank of Canada’s 25 basis point cut to 2.25% and, more importantly, its conditional forward guidance that frames the move as an expected endpoint to easing rather than the start of an open-ended easing cycle. Canada’s macro profile explains the caution: Q2 GDP contracted 1.6% and the labour market has softened with unemployment near 7.1% despite a one-off 60k payroll surprise, while headline CPI sits at 2.4% year on year and the Bank’s Trimmed measure runs around 3.1%. Traders therefore treated the rate cut as priced in and focused on the BoC’s message that further easing would be data dependent, a stance that caps expectations for sustained policy-driven weakness in the loonie. At the same time a softer US dollar and steady oil have eased external pressure on the currency, but persistent US trade and tariff uncertainty remains a tangible downside risk for growth and the exchange rate.