加拿大央行 为了再次停火，九月仍然在继续。加拿大央行 人们普遍预计，该行今天将把隔夜利率稳定在2.75%，标志着其降息周期连续第三次暂停。劳动力市场略有改善，6月份失业率小幅回落至6.9%，这为央行保持目前的立场提供了喘息的空间。

BoC to hold fire again, September cut still in play.BoC is widely expected to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.75% today, marking a third consecutive pause in its rate-cut cycle. The slight improvement in the labor market, with unemployment edging back down to 6.9% in June, gives the central bank breathing space to maintain its current stance.

周二，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.5%，收于27540点，受科技股领涨和大宗商品价格重新走强的推动。Celestica在上调前景后以16.9%的涨幅引领市场，而油价攀升至五周高点，这得益于美国-欧盟的能源购买承诺和俄罗斯-乌克兰制裁风险的增加，加拿大天然气公司、帝国石油公司和Cenovus公司各上涨了1%以上。金价从三周低点企稳后，黄金生产商也出现反弹，Agnico Eagle和Wheaton Precious分别上涨2.3%和2.1%。美中关税休战的延长，加上美国消费者信心数据强于预期，强化了人们对美联储将在周三会议上保持“稳定但警惕”立场的押注。与此同时，周日的美国-欧盟框架协议——设定了15%的基准关税——在本周加拿大银行利率决定之前，继续缓解了关税战的担忧，并支持加拿大的出口暴露行业。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% to close at 27,540 on Tuesday, driven by a tech-led rally and renewed strength across commodities. Celestica paced the market with a 16.9% surge after upgrading its outlook, while oil climbed to a five-week high—spurred by a US–EU energy-buying pledge and heightened Russia–Ukraine sanctions risks—lifting Canadian Natural, Imperial Oil and Cenovus by over 1% each. Gold producers also rallied once bullion steadied from a three-week trough, with Agnico Eagle and Wheaton Precious adding 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively . An extension of the US–China tariff truce, coupled with stronger-than-expected US consumer-confidence data, reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will maintain its “steady but watchful” stance at Wednesday’s meeting. At the same time, Sunday’s US–EU framework agreement—which sets a 15% baseline tariff—continued to soothe tariff-war fears and support Canada’s export-exposed sectors ahead of this week’s Bank of Canada rate decision.

加元兑美元汇率跌破1.375，为两个月来最低水平，因为美元复苏和持续的贸易不确定性给加拿大的经济前景蒙上了阴影。在外部方面，一系列备受瞩目的协议，最引人注目的是美日将汽车关税降至15%的协议和美国与欧盟的平行框架，缓解了人们对旷日持久的关税战的担忧，增强了人们对美国经济更强劲增长和美联储坚决鹰派的预期。相比之下，加拿大仍然没有类似的协议，这让投资者为华盛顿可能采取的单边措施做好了准备。在国内，5月份零售额比预期下降1.1%，突显出经济降温，促使市场考虑到加拿大银行比预期更早转向降息。

The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.375 per US dollar, its weakest level in two months, as a revived US dollar and persistent trade uncertainty clouded Canada’s economic outlook. On the external front, a string of high-profile agreements, most notably the US–Japan deal cutting auto tariffs to 15% and a parallel US–EU framework, has eased fears of a drawn-out tariff war, bolstering expectations for stronger US growth and a resolutely hawkish Federal Reserve. Canada, by contrast, remains without a comparable pact, leaving investors braced for possible unilateral measures from Washington. At home, a steeper-than-anticipated 1.1% decline in May retail sales underscored a cooling economy, spurring markets to factor in an earlier-than-expected pivot toward rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二上涨约0.3%，收于27480点以上，创下历史新高，科技和大宗商品的强劲上涨推动了上涨。Celestica领涨，第二季度业绩强于预期，涨幅超过16%，而重量级同行Shopify和Constellation Software上涨了约1%。在能源方面，中东供应担忧的重新出现和欧佩克+配额的收紧推高了油价，支撑了整个行业的生产商，黄金矿商在金价稳定在三周低点附近后受到追捧，因为有迹象表明贸易紧张局势的缓解可能会支撑需求。与此同时，周日的美国-欧盟框架协议——设定了15%的基准关税——有助于缓解对更广泛关税升级的担忧，并为铁路运营商等出口暴露行业提供了提振。展望未来，投资者正在为加拿大银行和美联储的关键央行决策以及本周晚些时候的一系列重量级收益做准备。

The S&P/TSX Composite climbed around 0.3% to above the 27,480 mark on Tuesday, testing new record highs as robust gains in both tech and commodities drove the advance. Leading the charge, Celestica surged over 16% on stronger-than-expected Q2 results, while heavyweight peers Shopify and Constellation Software added about 1%. In energy, renewed Middle East supply concerns and tighter OPEC+ quotas lifted oil prices, underpinning producers across the sector, and gold miners caught a bid after bullion steadied near a three-week low amid hints that easing trade tensions could support demand. Meanwhile, Sunday’s US–EU framework agreement—setting a 15% baseline tariff—helped allay fears of broader tariff escalation and provided a bump to export-exposed industries such as railway operators. Looking ahead, investors are bracing for key central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve, along with a slate of heavyweight earnings later this week.