加拿大将推出一系列反制措施，以帮助其应对特朗普的关税。加拿大将推出一系列反制措施，以帮助应对特朗普的关税。7月21日，加拿大总理卡尼将调整其对美国钢铁和铝产品的现有反关税。加拿大的反恐水平将取决于与美国就新经济协议进行的谈判进展。

Canada will introduce a series of countermeasures to help it deal with Trump tariffs.Canada will introduce a series of countermeasures to help deal with Trump tariffs. Will adjust its existing counter tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 (PM Carney) level of Canadian counterterrorist will depend on progress of talks with US on new economic deal.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周四下跌0.2%，至26530点以下，因以色列与伊朗的敌对行动升级，以及对美国潜在干预的猜测加剧，引发了避险情绪。在华盛顿，特朗普总统对直接参与的模棱两可的立场增加了地缘政治的不确定性，而美联储在贸易紧张局势加剧和中东风险加剧的情况下决定保持利率稳定并缩减其预期的降息幅度，加强了谨慎的政策背景。金融和科技权重股表现不佳——布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司和道明银行均下跌近1%——Shopify下跌约0.8%，反映出广泛的防御定位。相反，由于担心中东供应中断，油价接近多个月高点，能源生产商表现出色。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.2% to below the 26,530 mark on Thursday as escalating Israel–Iran hostilities and mounting speculation over potential US intervention drove risk aversion. In Washington, President Trump’s equivocal stance on direct involvement added to geopolitical uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady and scale back its projected rate cuts amid heightened trade tensions and Middle East risks reinforced a cautious policy backdrop. Financial and tech heavyweights underperformed—Brookfield Asset Management and TD Bank each slipped nearly 1%—and Shopify retreated about 0.8%, reflecting broad defensive positioning. Conversely, energy producers outperformed as oil prices traded near multi-month highs on fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

加拿大CFIB商业晴雨表长期指数反映了小企业对未来12个月的预期，该指数从上个月的40上升到2025年6月的47.3，上升了7.3点。这标志着自2月以来的最高水平，这是由于出口商和进口商的预期增强，出口商的信心从5月的26.4升至36.1，进口商的前景从28.9升至37.4。与此同时，不从事国际贸易的企业报告称，市场情绪有所改善，该指数从34.2升至43.4。尽管乐观情绪日益高涨，但招聘意向仍然低迷。全职员工计划显示势头不大，表明对扩大工资的兴趣有限，而兼职就业趋势也仍然疲软，反映出谨慎的招聘行为。与此同时，衡量三个月预期的短期指数从上月的42.4升至6月的47.7。

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which reflects twelve-month expectations among small businesses, increased by 7.3 points to 47.3 in June 2025, from 40 in the previous month. This marked the highest level since February, driven by stronger expectations among both exporters, whose confidence climbed to 36.1 from 26.4 in May, and importers, whose outlook rose to 37.4 from 28.9. At the same time, businesses not engaged in international trade reported improved sentiment, with the index rising to 43.4 from 34.2. Despite the growing optimism, hiring intentions remain subdued. Full-time staffing plans show little momentum, indicating limited interest in expanding payrolls, while part-time employment trends also remain soft, reflecting cautious hiring behavior. Meanwhile, the short-term index, which measures three-month expectations, rose to 47.7 in June from 42.4 in the preceding month.

6月，加元兑美元汇率跌至1.37，较6月16日出现的8个多月来的最高点1.357有所回落，因为对与美国货币政策分歧的预期、大宗商品疲软的迹象和地缘政治避险资金的流动都削弱了其最近的涨幅。交易员现在将加拿大央行相对美联储更为激进的宽松政策纳入价格，缩小了收益率差异，侵蚀了加元的套利优势。在国内，第一季度私人消费数据不温不火，环比增长0.4%，最近加拿大商品的贸易关税威胁给出口商的前景蒙上了阴影。与此同时，以色列和伊朗的紧张局势进一步支撑了美元的吸引力。

The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.37 per USD in June, easing from its strongest in over eight months of 1.357 seen June 16th, as expectations for monetary policy divergence with the US, softer commodity cues and geopolitical safe-haven flows have all chipped away at its recent gains. Traders now price in more aggressive Bank of Canada easing relative to the Fed, narrowing yield differentials and eroding the loonie’s carry advantage. Domestically, tepid first-quarter private-consumption data –0.4% quarter-on-quarter and recent trade-tariff threats on Canadian goods have clouded the outlook for exporters. Meanwhile, Israel–Iran tensions have further underpinned the US dollar’s appeal.