6月初，加元兑美元汇率约为1.37，接近6月5日达到的8个月高点1.367，反映出国内基本面疲软以及美元走强。5月，加拿大就业市场仅增加了8800个职位，失业率上升至7%，为2021年底以来的最高水平，突显出制造商开始感受到美国对铝、钢铁和汽车关税的压力。这些劳动力市场压力与早些时候的弹性迹象形成鲜明对比，如第一季度GDP增长2.2%和零售销售连续增长，促使加拿大央行将政策利率保持在2.75%，几乎没有迹象表明即将降息。与此同时，渥太华与华盛顿的“密集和实时”谈判尚未消除对更广泛贸易冲击的担忧，使依赖出口的行业变得脆弱。与此同时，在5月份非农就业人数略高于预期后，美元走强，进一步限制了加元。

The Canadian dollar traded around 1.37 per USD in early June, near its eight-month peak of 1.367 reached on June 5th, reflecting weakening domestic fundamentals alongside a firmer US currency. In May, Canada’s job market added just 8,800 positions and saw the unemployment rate rise to 7%, its highest since late 2021, underscoring how manufacturers are starting to feel the pinch from US tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos. These labor-market strains stand in stark contrast to earlier signs of resilience, such as 2.2% Q1 GDP growth and consecutive retail-sales gains, that prompted the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.75% with little indication of imminent cuts. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s “intensive and live” negotiations with Washington have yet to dispel fears of a broader trade shock, leaving export-dependent industries vulnerable. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened after May’s nonfarm payrolls slightly outperformed expectations, further capping the loonie.