标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五下跌0.4%，收于29284点，投资者在两周创纪录的反弹后暂停交易，并将注意力转向加拿大银行和美联储下周可能降息。在数据显示加拿大8月份裁员约65500人，失业率攀升至7.1%后，中国央行放松政策的可能性上升。美国CPI的印刷大致符合预期，使美联储降息的道路保持不变，市场目前预计今年的宽松政策约为75个基点，一些参与者甚至押注下周将加息0.5个基点。金融、矿业和科技股领跌，布鲁克菲尔德公司下跌1.4%，巴里克下跌1.2%，Shopify下跌1.1%。尽管如此，多伦多证交所仍公布了0.8%的周涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% to close at 29,284 on Friday as investors paused after two weeks of record-breaking rallies and turned their attention to likely interest-rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve next week. Odds of BoC easing rose after data showed Canada shed about 65,500 jobs in August and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%. A US CPI print roughly in line with expectations kept the path to Fed cuts intact, and markets now price about 75 basis points of easing this year, with some participants even wagering on a half-point move next week. Financials, miners and techs led the decline, with Brookfield Corporation down 1.4%, Barrick off 1.2% and Shopify down 1.1%. The TSX nevertheless posted a weekly gain of 0.8%.

前瞻性指引：另一个迫在眉睫的呼吁加拿大央行 但对美联储来说没那么多。最近北美劳动力市场数据的疲软使央行进一步提前降息的前景重新出现。

Forward Guidance: Another Close Call for BoC But Not So Much for Fed.Recent softening in North American labour market data has brought back prospects for additional and earlier interest rate cuts from central banks.

加拿大建筑许可证总价值在6月份下降9%后，于2025年7月环比下降0.1%，至119亿美元。下降的主要原因是非住宅许可证（-2.792亿美元），部分被住宅部门的收益（+2.683亿美元）所抵消。在非住宅、工业（-2.529亿加元）和机构（-1.96亿加元）许可证中，许可证下降，而商业（+16.97亿加元）则上升，安大略省（+8250万加元）领涨。工业衰退主要是由安大略省（-1.909亿加元）推动的，而阿尔伯塔省（-1.921亿加元）则导致了机构损失。在住宅领域，单户住宅许可证增加了1.435亿美元，达到26亿美元，多单元住宅许可证增长了1.248亿美元，至47亿美元。在全国范围内，批准了20000套多单元住宅和4100套单户住宅，比6月份增长了1.9%，安大略省（+4.975亿加元）推动了该行业的整体增长。

The total value of building permits in Canada edged down 0.1% month-over-month to $11.9 billion in July 2025, after a 9% drop in June. The decline was led by non-residential permits (-$279.2 million), partly offset by gains in the residential sector (+$268.3 million). Within non-residential, industrial (-$252.9 million) and institutional (-$196.0 million) permits fell, while commercial (+$169.7 million) rose, led by Ontario (+$82.5 million). The industrial decline was mainly driven by Ontario (-$190.9 million), while Alberta (-$192.1 million) led institutional losses. In the residential sector, single-family permits grew $143.5 million to $2.6 billion and multi-unit permits rose $124.8 million to $4.7 billion. Nationwide, 20,000 multi-unit and 4,100 single-family dwellings were authorized, up 1.9% from June, with Ontario (+$497.5 million) driving the sector’s overall increase.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五在29410点附近徘徊，投资者在两周创纪录的反弹后暂停，并将注意力转向加拿大银行和美联储下周降息的前景。在数据显示加拿大8月份裁员约65500人，失业率攀升至7.1%后，中国央行放松政策的可能性上升。美国CPI的印刷大致符合预期，使美联储降息的道路保持不变，市场目前预计今年的宽松政策约为75个基点，一些参与者甚至押注下周将加息0.5个基点。能源股领涨，此前有报道称乌克兰无人机袭击停止了俄罗斯普里莫尔斯克石油码头的装载，收紧了附近的供应，并将需求转向替代供应商，而科技和金融股则落后。尽管如此，多伦多证交所似乎仍将录得略高于1%的周涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite struggled for direction around the 29,410 mark on Friday as investors paused after two weeks of record breaking rallies and turned their attention to the prospect of interest-rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the US Fed next week. Odds of BoC easing rose after data showed Canada shed about 65,500 jobs in August and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%. A US CPI print roughly in line with expectations kept the path to Fed cuts intact, and markets now price roughly 75 basis points of easing this year, with some participants even betting on a half-point move next week. Energy names led gains after a reported Ukrainian drone strike halted loadings at Russia’s Primorsk oil terminal, tightening nearby supply and redirecting demand toward alternative suppliers, while tech and financials lagged. The TSX nevertheless looked set to log weekly gains of just over 1%.