加元兑美元汇率徘徊在1.42左右，停止了从1月31日1.455的22年低点反弹，因为投资者正在筛选各种经济信号。1月份零售额下降0.4%，为七个月来首次下降，这表明在12月强劲增长后，消费者支出放缓，引发了对国内增长势头的担忧。此外，美国针对加拿大大部分出口产品的关税威胁的持续不确定性抑制了加元的需求前景。相反，强劲的通胀压力凸显了中国银行在平衡增长和控制价格方面的挑战，工业生产者价格飙升1.6%，原材料价格指数环比上涨3.7%，降低了加拿大银行进一步放松的预期。与此同时，在特朗普总统不那么激进的关税立场的推动下，美元普遍疲软，缓解了通胀担忧，并提振了对美联储可能降息的预期。

The Canadian dollar hovered around 1.42 per USD, halting its rebound from a 22-year low of 1.455 on January 31, as investors sifted through a mix of economic signals. A 0.4% decline in January retail sales, the first drop in seven months, suggested a slowdown in consumer spending following December's robust surge, raising concerns about domestic momentum. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty over U.S. tariff threats targeting a significant portion of Canadian exports, has dampened the loonie's demand outlook. Conversely, strong inflationary pressures highlighted the BoC's challenge in balancing growth and controlling prices, with industrial producer prices surging 1.6% and the Raw Materials Price Index jumping 3.7% month-over-month, reducing expectations for further Bank of Canada easing. Meanwhile, broad U.S. dollar weakness, fueled by President Trump’s less aggressive tariff stance, has alleviated inflation fears and bolstered expectations for potential Fed rate cuts.

据初步估计，2025年1月，加拿大的零售额预计将比上月下降0.4%，这是七个月来的首次下降。此前，2024年最后一个月的零售额激增2.5%，高于初步估计的1.6%，这是自2022年5月以来零售额的最大增幅。所有九个子行业的销售额都有所增长，其中食品和饮料零售商（3.5%）以及加油站和燃料供应商（4.2%）的销售额激增。消费者的核心行业也较高，一般商品零售商（3.2%）和服装、配饰、鞋类和服装零售商（3.1%）的营业额急剧增长。虽然保持高位，但销售增长低于机动车和零部件经销商（1.9%）以及建筑材料和园林设备经销商（2.4%）的平均增长。与上一年相比，零售额增长了3.6%，为近两年来最大增幅。

Retail sales in Canada are expected to ease by 0.4% from the previous month in January of 2025, the first drop in seven months, according to preliminary estimates. That follows a 2.5% surge in the final month of 2024, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 1.6%, to mark the sharpest rise in retail turnover since May of 2022. Sales were up in all nine subsectors, led by surges in food and beverage retailers (3.5%) and sales in gasoline stations and fuel vendors (4.2%). Core sectors for consumers were also higher, with turnover increasing sharply in general merchandise retailers (3.2%) and clothing, accessories, shoes, and apparel retailers (3.1%). While remaining high, sales growth missed the average increase in motor vehicle and parts dealers (1.9%) and building material and garden equipment dealers (2.4%). From the previous year, retail turnover was 3.6%, the sharpest increase in nearly two years.

加拿大：12月零售额大幅增长，实际活动报告为2022年年中以来最强劲的月份。按实际价值计算，销售额增长加速至2.5%m/m，反映了GST/HST税收减免支持的强劲支出。这是自2022年6月以来的最高读数。

Canada: Retail Sales Jump in December, With Real Activity Reporting Its Strongest Month Since Mid-2022.In real terms, sales growth accelerated to 2.5% m/m, reflecting robust spending supported by the GST/HST tax break. This is the highest reading since June 2022.

加拿大12月零售额激增2.5%，但1月将回落。12月，加拿大零售额增长2.5%，达到696亿加元，远远超过市场预期的1.6%。所有九个子行业的销售额都有所增长，其中食品和饮料零售商以及机动车和零部件经销商的贡献最大。

Canada's retail sales surge in 2.5% mom Dec, but Jan set for pullback.Canada's retail sales jumped 2.5% mom to CAD 69.6B in December, far surpassing market expectations of 1.6% mom. Sales increased across all nine subsectors, with the strongest contributions from food and beverage retailers and motor vehicle and parts dealers.