加拿大丰业银行美元兑加元预测：1.41因收益率差距扩大而出现波动。美元兑加元（USD/CAD）汇率本周稳定在1.4011，巩固了高于关键1.40水平的涨幅，因为美国收益率走强和风险背景疲软对加元构成压力。在过去的一周里，加元的整体表现在整个G10中表现更为稳健，显示出对瑞士法郎的上涨。

Scotiabank US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Forecast: 1.41 Tipped as Yield Gap Widens.The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate has ended the week firm at 1.4011, consolidating gains above the key 1.40 level as stronger US yields and a softer risk backdrop weigh on the Canadian dollar. Over the past week, the Canadian Dollar's overall performance has seen a firmer tone across the G10, showing gains versus CHF.

前瞻性指引：美国政府停摆扰乱数据发布，加拿大10月就业成为焦点。美国政府停摆继续阻碍关键经济数据的发布，下周美国9月国际贸易和10月就业报告不太可能如期发布。

Forward Guidance: October Jobs in Canada in Focus as U.S. Shutdown Disrupts Data Releases.The U.S. government shutdown continues to prevent the release of key economic data with the coming week's U.S. September international trade and October jobs reports unlikely to be published on schedule.

加拿大政府在2025年8月公布了32.8亿加元的预算赤字，而2024年8月的赤字为25亿加元。这一转变在很大程度上反映了收入增加了23亿加元（6.5%），这是由于公司和个人所得税以及海关进口关税的增加，而在联邦燃料费停止后，污染定价下降了9亿加元。不包括净精算损失的计划支出增加了30亿加元（9.1%），反映了直接计划支出的增加、对个人的重大转移以及对省、地区和直辖市的转移。公共债务费用下降了1亿加元（1.5%），因为国库券利率下降和交叉货币掉期净利息减少，在很大程度上被可销售债券存量增加的平均有效利率提高所抵消；2025-26年4月至8月期间，联邦预算赤字为111亿加元，而2024-25年同期为98亿加元。

Canada’s government posted a budget deficit of CAD 3.28 billion in August 2025, compared with a deficit of CAD 2.5 billion in August 2024. This shift largely reflected a CAD 2.3 billion (6.5%) increase in revenues, driven by higher corporate and personal income tax and customs import duties, while pollution pricing fell by CAD 0.9 billion following the cessation of the federal fuel charge. Program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses, rose by CAD 3.0 billion (9.1%), reflecting higher direct program expenses, major transfers to persons, and transfers to provinces, territories, and municipalities. Public debt charges fell by CAD 0.1 billion (1.5%) as lower interest rates on treasury bills and reduced net interest on cross-currency swaps were largely offset by higher average effective rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds; for the April–August 2025–26 period, the federal budget deficit stood at CAD 11.1 billion, compared to CAD 9.8 billion in the same period of 2024–25.

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The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% to close at 30,261 on Friday as strength in US technology stocks and a string of solid corporate results supported the market. Constellation Software led the advance, up 2.9%, while Celestica added 1.5% after raising its outlook and Shopify gained 0.5% amid optimism from upbeat guidance among major tech firms. Meanwhile, Canadian National Railway jumped 3% on better than expected results. However, gains were capped by softer commodity prices, with gold and copper retreating on a firmer US dollar and oil easing after weak China data and rising global production offset the effect of Western sanctions on Russian exports. On the trade front Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to restart economic engagement and to outline plans to double non-US exports over the next decade. For the week the Toronto exchange slipped 0.3%.