周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.6%，收于30353点，低于预期的美国通胀率巩固了美联储降息的可能性，并保持了强劲的风险偏好，帮助抵消了本周早些时候加拿大贸易再次出现的紧张情绪。所有九个板块均上涨，科技股和增长股领涨。Shopify上涨3.7%，Constellation Software上涨1.5%，Celestica上涨5%，而Brookfield的财务数据上涨1.7%。特朗普总统突然终止与加拿大的贸易谈判，早些时候缓和了市场的上涨，但安大略省宣布将暂停周一生效的有争议的里根广告，这缓解了一些近期的外交摩擦，并增加了谈判恢复的可能性。本周，多伦多证交所上涨0.8%，投资者在美国货币政策预期宽松与贸易政策不确定性仍然较高之间取得了平衡。

The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.6% to close at 30,353 on Friday as cooler than expected US inflation firmed odds of Fed rate cuts and kept risk appetite strong, helping offset renewed Canada trade jitters earlier in the week. All nine sectors traded higher with tech and growth names leading the advance. Shopify rallied 3.7%, Constellation Software added 1.5% and Celestica jumped 5%, while Brookfield paced the financials with a gain of 1.7%. The market’s upside was tempered earlier by President Trump’s abrupt termination of trade talks with Canada, but Ontario’s announcement that it will pause the controversial Reagan ad effective Monday has eased some near-term diplomatic friction and increased the odds talks will resume. For the week the TSX saw a 0.8% gain as investors balance easier US monetary policy expectations with still-elevated trade policy uncertainty.

10年期加拿大政府债券收益率跌至3.07%，接近六个月低点，因为市场对边境两侧货币宽松的可能性更大进行了定价。在加拿大，市场预计加拿大央行将降息近25个基点，而华盛顿突然终止贸易谈判，这增加了关税和出口疲软的可能性，提高了关税和部门摩擦挤压商业投资和出口收入的可能性，抑制了增长，并推动中国央行进一步放松以抵消这些影响。在经历了一系列疲软的国内活动和调查数据后，市场现在很有可能在10月29日的会议上降息25个基点。在美国，通胀率低于预期，使市场押注美联储今年将再次降息，并导致国债收益率下降。

The 10-year Canadian government yield slipped toward 3.07%, nearing six-month lows as markets moved to price in greater odds of monetary easing on both sides of the border. In Canada, markets priced a near-certain 25bp Bank of Canada cut and Washington’s abrupt termination of trade talks raised the prospect of tariffs and weaker exports, increasing the likelihood that tariff and sectoral frictions will squeeze business investment and export revenues, depressing growth and nudging the BoC toward further easing to offset those effects. Markets now assign a high probability to a 25bp cut at the October 29th meeting after a run of soft domestic activity and survey readings. In the United States, a softer-than-expected inflation print firmed market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again this year and sent Treasury yields down.

加元兑美元汇率跌破1.40加元，跌至六个月低点，因为市场预计加拿大央行将降息近25个基点，而华盛顿突然终止贸易谈判增加了关税和出口疲软的前景。这一贸易挫折增加了关税和部门摩擦挤压商业投资和出口收入的可能性，抑制了增长，并推动中国银行进一步放松以抵消这些影响。在经历了一系列疲软的国内活动和调查数据后，市场现在很有可能在下周的会议上降息25个基点，这压低了预期的加拿大短期利率，缩小了相对于美国的收益率缓冲。与此同时，美国9月通胀数据略低于预期，巩固了对美联储宽松政策的预期。

The Canadian dollar weakened past C$1.40 per US dollar, slipping toward six-month lows as markets priced a near-certain 25bp Bank of Canada cut and Washington’s abrupt termination of trade talks raised the prospect of tariffs and weaker exports. That trade setback increases the likelihood that tariff and sectoral frictions will squeeze business investment and export revenues, depressing growth and nudging the BoC toward further easing to offset those effects. Markets now assign a high probability to a 25bp cut at next week’s meeting after a run of soft domestic activity and survey readings, which has pushed down expected Canadian short rates and narrowed the yield cushion versus the United States. At the same time US inflation printed slightly softer-than-expected readings for September, firming expectations for Fed easing.

前进指导：加拿大央行 在8月份加拿大GDP持平之前削减。美国联邦储备委员会和加拿大银行预计将于周三下调政策利率，比9月份各降息25个基点。

Forward Guidance: BoC to Cut Before a Flat GDP Print for Canada in August.The U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are both expected to cut policy rates on Wednesday, adding to 25 basis point reductions from each in September.