路透社民意调查：加拿大银行将在年底前将隔夜利率降至2.25%或更低。加拿大央行将于7月30日宣布其利率决定（美联储也将在该日宣布），所有接受调查的28位经济学家都预计，央行将在会上将利率稳定在2.75%。

Reuters Poll: Bank of Canada will cut overnight rate to 2.25% or lower by end of year.The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on July 30 (the Fed announces on that date too) and all 28 economists surveyed expect that the the central bank will keep rates steady at 2.75% at that meeting.

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.2%，收于27390点，从历史高点回落，主要矿商和金融股的大幅下跌抵消了其他地区的涨幅，而投资者消化了新的贸易发展和喜忧参半的公司业绩。在日本达成关税削减协议，欧盟特使表示与华盛顿达成类似协议取得进展后，资源股未能反弹，泰克资源公司报告第二季度盈利能力增强，但其股价下跌8.7%，加拿大皇家银行大型股下跌1.3%。相比之下，防御性和以消费者为导向的品牌表现优异：Loblaw上涨2.2%，杂货和药店销售额好于预期，FirstService上涨8.9%，季度业绩强劲。能源板块也因油价走强而上涨，加拿大统计局的初步数据显示，6月份零售额反弹约1.6%。

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% to close at 27,390 on Thursday, retreating from its record high as steep declines in major miners and financials offset gains elsewhere while investors digested fresh trade developments and mixed corporate results. After Japan secured a tariff-cut deal and EU envoys signaled progress toward a similar agreement with Washington, resource stocks failed to rally, Teck Resources reported stronger Q2 profitability yet its shares tumbled 8.7%, and mega-cap Royal Bank of Canada slipped 1.3%. In contrast, defensive and consumer-oriented names outperformed: Loblaw climbed 2.2% on better-than-expected grocery and pharmacy sales, and FirstService leapt 8.9% on robust quarterly results. The energy sector also advanced on firmer oil prices, and preliminary Statistics Canada data suggested a roughly 1.6% rebound in retail sales in June.

加元的汇率是多少？从7月份大幅复苏后，美元兑美元汇率为1.36？17低？1.374，受美元走软提振，此前市场再次乐观地认为美日和美欧贸易协定将避免关税升级。原油价格也走强，加强了加拿大的石油出口收入，并为加元提供了额外的支持。然而，随着市场重新关注即将到来的8月，这种反弹已经停滞？在第一个关税最后期限，美加谈判陷入僵局，卡尼总理坚持“没有坏协议”，这引发了惩罚性征税的担忧。？与此同时，6月份零售销售走强可能会支撑国内增长预期，并减轻中国银行延长宽松周期的压力。

The Canadian dollar traded around?1.36 per US dollar after recovering sharply from its July?17th low of?1.374, lifted by a softer US dollar following renewed optimism that US–Japan and US–EU trade agreements would avert an escalation of tariffs. Crude prices also firmed, reinforcing Canada’s oil-export revenues and lending additional support to the loonie. ?However, that rebound has stalled as markets refocus on the looming August?1st tariff deadline, where stalled US–Canada negotiations and Prime Minister Carney’s insistence on “no bad deal” have raised the specter of punitive levies. ?At the same time, stronger June retail sales likely underpin domestic growth expectations and lift pressure on the BoC to extend its loosening cycle.

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌约0.1%，跌破27390点，创下近期历史新高，尽管贸易紧张局势有所缓解，但加拿大大宗商品综合指数仍面临压力。在日本达成关税削减协议，欧盟特使表示在达成类似协议方面取得进展后，黄金失去了一些避险吸引力，拖累重量级矿商Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious、Barrick和Franco-Nevada下跌0.9%至1.7%。贱金属领军企业泰克资源公司在公布第二季度利润低于预期后暴跌约3.5%，尽管原油基准走强，但Cenovus等能源公司仍下跌约4%。在经济方面，加拿大统计局的初步数据显示，6月份零售额反弹约1.6%。

The S&P/TSX Composite fell around 0.1% to below the 27,390 mark on Thursday, relinquishing its recent record highs as Canada’s commodities complex came under pressure despite easing trade tensions. Gold lost some of its safe-haven appeal after Japan secured a tariff-cut deal and EU envoys signaled progress toward a similar pact, dragging heavyweight miners Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, Barrick and Franco-Nevada down between 0.9% and 1.7%. Base-metals leader Teck Resources plunged around 3.5% after reporting weaker-than-expected second-quarter profits, and energy names such as Cenovus fell roughly 4% despite firmer crude benchmarks. On the economic front, preliminary Statistics Canada data pointed to a roughly 1.6% rebound in retail sales in June.