加元兑美元汇率跌破1.38，为两个月来的最低水平，受到美元走强的压力，而加拿大的货币和经济背景对加元的支撑作用不大。加拿大央行决定将政策利率维持在2.75%，这是在七次降息总计2.25个百分点后的第三次暂停，突显了政策制定者面对持续的关税不确定性、出口商在第一季度提前发货导致第二季度国内生产总值收缩的迫在眉睫，以及中期CPI通胀将徘徊在2%目标附近的预期时的谨慎态度。尽管就业保持强劲，下半年增长预测保持乐观，但缺乏新的指导和全球贸易不平衡的幽灵使货币变得脆弱。加剧这些本土压力的是，美元已飙升至近两个月高点，这得益于第二季度GDP年化增长3%，巩固了美联储的加息押注，再加上美国劳动力数据喜忧参半，仍表明就业市场紧张。
The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.38 per US dollar, its weakest level in two months, pressured by US dollar strength while Canada’s monetary and economic backdrop has done little to buoy the loonie. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75%, the third pause after seven cuts totaling 2.25 percentage points, underscored policymakers’ caution in the face of persistent tariff uncertainties, a looming Q2 GDP contraction as exporters front-loaded shipments in Q1, and the expectation that CPI inflation will hover near the 2% target in the medium term. Despite employment remaining robust and second-half growth projections staying upbeat, the lack of fresh guidance and the specter of uneven global trade left the currency vulnerable. Compounding these home-grown pressures, the US dollar has surged to near two-month highs, on the back of a 3% annualized Q2 GDP beat that cements Fed rate-hold bets, compounded with mixed US labor data that still points to a tight jobs market.
