周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌约0.4%，至24910点以下，削减了上周1%的涨幅，因为油价下跌和贸易政策紧张局势再次给加拿大股市带来压力。能源生产商领跌，加拿大天然气、森科尔、帝国石油和Cenovus的股价下跌1.6%至2.7%，此前欧佩克+宣布连续第二个月加速增产。与此同时，特朗普总统出人意料地对外国制作的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了人们对更广泛的报复措施的担忧，这些措施可能会影响全球对加拿大资源出口的需求。北京方面对美国贸易谈判发出的复杂信号进一步破灭了短期解决方案的希望。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell around 0.4% to below the 24,910 mark on Monday, trimming last week’s 1% advance, as sliding oil prices and renewed trade-policy tensions pressured Canadian equities. Energy producers led the decline, with shares of Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus dropping between 1.6% and 2.7%, after OPEC+ announced a second consecutive month of accelerated output increases. Meanwhile, President Trump’s unexpected 100% tariff on foreign-produced films reignited concerns over broader retaliatory measures that could weigh on global demand for Canadian resource exports. Mixed signals from Beijing regarding U.S. trade talks further dashed hopes for a near-term resolution.

标准普尔全球加拿大综合采购经理人指数从上个月的42降至2024年4月的41.7，标志着该国私营部门连续第五次收缩，也是自2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。制造业和服务业的产出也出现了类似的下降。与3月份相比，新订单也大幅下降，由于产能压力有限，就业水平连续第四个月下降。虽然未来的预期有所改善，但仍处于历史低位。在价格方面，投入成本通胀降至三个月低点，但仍处于高位。然而，随着需求状况的减弱，产出费用略有下降，这是四年多来的首次下降。

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI fell to 41.7 in April 2024 from 42 in the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive contraction in the country's private sector and the steepest decline since June 2020. Both manufacturing and service sector outputs saw similar declines. New orders also dropped significantly compared to March, and with limited pressure on capacity, employment levels were reduced for the fourth consecutive month. While future expectations improved, they remained historically low. On the price front, input cost inflation fell to a three-month low but remained elevated. However, as demand conditions weakened, output charges saw a slight decline, marking the first decrease in over four years.

标准普尔全球加拿大服务业采购经理人指数从上个月的41.2微升至2025年4月的41.5，反映出加拿大服务业活动连续第五个时期以历史性的急剧速度收缩。新业务流入和产出均以接近3月份近五年低点的速度下降，因为经济和政治的不确定性，特别是美国关税和即将到来的大选，导致客户采取“观望”态度。因此，由于产能过剩，企业连续第四个月出现失业。在价格方面，尽管投入成本通胀降至三个月低点，但由于工资上涨和与关税相关的供应商价格上涨，运营费用再次大幅上涨。由于无法转嫁这些成本，公司自2021年3月以来首次下调了售价。商业信心虽然从3月份的低谷小幅反弹，但在持续的不确定性面前仍处于历史低位。

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI rose slightly to 41.5 in April 2025 from 41.2 in the previous month, reflecting a fifth consecutive period of contraction in Canada’s services activity at a historically steep pace. New business inflows and output both declined at rates close to March’s near five-year lows as economic and political uncertainty—particularly over US tariffs and the upcoming general election—led clients to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. Consequently, firms registered job losses for a fourth successive month amid excess capacity. On the price front, operating expenses rose sharply again—despite input cost inflation easing to a three-month low—driven by higher wage bills and tariff-related supplier price increases. Unable to pass on these costs, companies cut selling prices for the first time since March 2021. Business confidence, while rebounding modestly from March’s trough, remained historically subdued in the face of ongoing uncertainties.

贸易和就业数据显示加拿大经济对关税的反应。我们预计，加拿大3月份的贸易平衡将恢复顺差，4月份劳动力市场将裁员更多，这是加拿大经济如何随着美国关税的开始而发展的早期迹象。

Trade and Employment Data to Show How Canadian Economy Reacted to Tariffs.We expect Canada's trade balance swung back to a surplus in March and the labour market shed more jobs in April as early signs of how the Canadian economy evolved with the onset of U.S. tariffs.