CAD：下行风险依然存在——德国商业银行。美元/加元在最近几周大幅下跌。然而，这是由于美元明显疲软，而不是加元走强。

CAD: Downside risks still prevail – Commerzbank.USD/CAD has fallen significantly in recent weeks. However, this was due to pronounced USD weakness rather than CAD strength.

周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.3%，收于24150点，受到能源价格下跌和权重科技股和金融股疲软的压力。能源股领跌，Cenovus下跌2.1%，追随原油下跌。科技股和金融股也大幅下跌，Shpofy和Brookfield分别下跌2.7%和3.5%，与华尔街的下跌相呼应，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的攻击加剧，加上解雇的威胁，引发了人们对美联储独立性和全球市场动荡的担忧。与此同时，随着特朗普提出新的关税威胁，中国指责华盛顿滥用贸易，加剧了对全球增长的担忧，贸易摩擦再次爆发。在国内，加拿大联邦竞选活动的最后一周增加了投资者的谨慎，因为总理马克·卡尼承诺减税、扩大基础设施和国防开支，这表明未来可能会出现财政政策转变。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index slipped 0.3% to close at 24,150 on Monday, pressured by falling energy prices and weakness in heavyweight tech and financial shares. Energy stocks led the pullback, with Cenovus 2.1%, tracking crude oil lower. Tech and financial shares also declined sharply with Shpofy and Brookfield shedding 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively, echoing losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s intensifying attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—coupled with threats of dismissal—raised concerns over the central bank’s independence and unsettled global markets. At the same time, renewed trade friction flared as Trump floated fresh tariff threats and China accused Washington of trade abuses, heightening fears over global growth. Domestically, Canada’s final week of federal election campaigning added to investor caution, as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pledges of tax cuts and expanded infrastructure and defense spending pointed to potential fiscal policy shifts ahead.

由于投资者消化了加拿大央行最近的政策决定，加上美元疲软，加元在4月份超过1.38美元，创下六个月新高。加拿大央行将基准利率维持在2.75%，理由是美国关税前景不明朗，这可能会在通胀接近2%的情况下支持稳定增长，或者如果关税加剧，引发经济衰退和更高的通胀。此外，中国将美国石油进口量削减90%，通过新的阿尔伯塔-温哥华管道将超过四分之一的海运需求转向加拿大桶，从而支撑了出口收入。与此同时，美元跌至2022年2月以来的最低点，人们担心对美联储的政治攻击——最明显的是特朗普总统要求立即降息和凯文·哈塞特建议罢免鲍威尔主席——已经将货币政策政治化，削弱了人们对美元和国债作为避风港的信心。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past $1.38 in April, marking a six -month high, as investors digested the Bank of Canada's recent policy decision, combined with a weakening U.S. dollar. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark rate at 2.75%, citing an unclear U.S. tariff outlook that could either support steady growth with inflation near 2% or, if tariffs intensify, trigger a recession and higher inflation. Additionally, China’s 90% cut in U.S. oil imports has redirected over a quarter of its seaborne demand to Canadian barrels via the new Alberta–Vancouver pipeline, underpinning export revenues. At the same time, the U.S. dollar slumped to its weakest since February 2022 amid fears that political attacks on the Fed—most notably President Trump’s demand for an immediate rate cut and Kevin Hassett’s suggestion that Chair Powell be removed—have politicized monetary policy, eroding confidence in the greenback and Treasury bonds as safe havens.

周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌约0.3%，至24150点以下，投资者从假期归来，贸易摩擦加剧，对美联储的独立性再次产生怀疑。能源股领跌——加拿大自然、森科尔、帝国石油和Cenovus均下跌1.5%至2.9%，与油价疲软一致，而Shopify、Constellation Software和Celestica等科技股下跌0.8%至2.5%。北京指责华盛顿滥用关税，并有报道称美国政府正在敦促贸易伙伴限制与世界第二大经济体中国的贸易，这进一步抑制了市场情绪。在唐纳德·特朗普总统公开批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特透露政府正在权衡是否可以罢免他之后，风险偏好也减弱了——此举被广泛认为破坏了央行的自主权。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell around 0.3% to below the 24,150 mark on Monday, as investors returned from holiday to intensifying trade frictions and renewed doubts over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Energy names led the retreat—Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil and Cenovus each dropped between 1.5% and 2.9% in line with softer oil prices—while technology stocks such as Shopify, Constellation Software and Celestica fell 0.8% to 2.5%. Sentiment was further dampened by Beijing’s accusation that Washington is abusing tariffs and reports that the U.S. administration is pressing trading partners to limit commerce with China, the world’s second-largest economy. Risk appetite also weakened after President Donald Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and White House adviser Kevin Hassett revealed the administration is weighing whether it could remove him—moves widely seen as undermining central-bank autonomy.