加元兑美元汇率跌至1.41加元，接近七个月低点，因美元走强加上贸易不确定性和经济增长疲软导致的赤字飙升。加拿大央行将政策利率下调至2.25%后，美元走强削弱了加元的利差。中国央行的宽松政策削减了国内名义收益率，尽管官员们表示周期可能已经结束，使市场专注于放缓经济活动，而不是进一步放松政策。渥太华的新预算将使今年的赤字增加一倍以上，达到约783亿加元，这是一项重大的财政宽松政策，市场必须在经济增长放缓的同时进行定价。与此同时，石油几乎无法抵消这一影响，因为油价已经降至每桶60年代中期以下，这削弱了加拿大的贸易条件，削减了原本支持加元的出口收入。与美国重新出现的贸易紧张局势使政策和增长风险居高不下。

The Canadian dollar slipped toward C$1.41 per US dollar, a near seven-month low, as a stronger US dollar compounded with trade uncertainties and a soaring deficit amid weaker economic growth. A firmer US dollar eroded the carry case for the loonie after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25%. The BoC’s easing trimmed domestic nominal yields even as officials signalled the cycle may be over, leaving markets focused on slowing activity rather than further policy loosening. Ottawa’s new budget would more than double the deficit to roughly C$78.3 billion this year, a material fiscal loosening that markets must price alongside subdued growth. Meanwhile, Oil offers little offset because prices have cooled in the low to mid sixties per barrel, which weakens Canada’s terms of trade and trims export revenue that would otherwise support the currency. Renewed trade tensions with the United States have kept policy and growth risks elevated.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周三上涨约0.6%，收于29930点以上，此前一交易日大幅下跌，大宗商品生产商的涨幅抵消了更广泛的避险基调。能源股领涨，森科尔在第三季度业绩强于预期和股息增加后飙升近5%，而加拿大天然气公司、帝国石油公司和Cenovus也上涨。受金价反弹的支撑，主要矿商Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious Metals和Barrick Gold均上涨超过2.5%。相比之下，随着人工智能驱动的反弹势头减弱，科技股表现滞后，Shopify下跌超过1.5%。在宏观方面，加拿大10月份的综合采购经理人指数从9月份的46.3升至50.3，标志着自2024年11月以来私营部门的首次扩张，而总理马克·卡尼的第一份预算概述了大量的新支出，这可能会使今年的赤字增加一倍以上，达到约783亿加元。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose around 0.6% to above the 29,930 level on Wednesday, following a sharp selloff in the previous session, as gains amongst commodity producers offset a broader risk-off tone. Energy led gains, with Suncor surging nearly 5% after stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and a dividend boost, while Canadian Natural, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus also advanced. Major miners Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Barrick Gold climbed more than 2.5% each, supported by a rebound in bullion prices. In contrast, tech lagged as the AI-driven rally lost momentum, with Shopify down over 1.5%. On the macro front, Canada’s Composite PMI rose to 50.3 in October from 46.3 in September, marking the first private sector expansion since November 2024, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget outlined heavy new spending that could more than double the deficit this year to about C$78.3 billion.

标准普尔全球加拿大服务业采购经理人指数从9月份的46.3升至2025年10月的50.5，自2024年11月以来首次突破50.0大关。随着新业务量连续第11个月持续下降，该行业恢复增长，但幅度不大。由于客户犹豫不决，尤其是国际客户，需求仍然疲软，关税和旅游业的减少是自4月以来出口订单下降幅度最大的原因。由于企业没有更换离职者，就业人数连续第二个月小幅下降。积压订单急剧下降，表明产能过剩。由于竞争的限制，投入成本的增长速度较慢，而销售价格的增长速度比9月份快。由于贸易和政治状况持续存在不确定性，商业信心减弱。

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI rose to 50.5 in October 2025 from 46.3 in September, moving above the 50.0 mark for the first time since November 2024. The sector returned to growth, though only marginally, as new business volumes continued to fall for the 11th consecutive month. Demand remained weak amid client hesitancy, especially among international customers, with tariffs and reduced tourism driving the steepest drop in export orders since April. Employment fell modestly for the second straight month as firms refrained from replacing leavers. Backlogs declined sharply, indicating spare capacity. Input costs rose at a slower pace, while selling prices increased more quickly than in September, constrained by competition. Business confidence weakened amid ongoing uncertainty over trade and political conditions.

标准普尔全球加拿大综合采购经理人指数在2025年10月录得50.3，高于9月的46.3，这是自2024年11月以来私营部门活动的首次增长。制造业（49.6比47.7）和服务业（50.5比46.3）均呈现强劲复苏，后者恢复到边际增长，而新订单继续下降并拖累产出。随着公司轻松处理新合同和现有合同，积压的工作急剧减少。由于产能过剩和需求疲软，企业裁员，就业人数小幅下降。商业信心仍低于趋势水平，低于9月份。在价格方面，尽管从9月份的三个月高点略有回落，但投入成本通胀仍然居高不下，而产出费用通胀则因销售价格稳步上涨而加强，但受到竞争压力的限制。

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI recorded 50.3 in October 2025, up from 46.3 in September, marking the first rise in private sector activity since November 2024. Both the manufacturing (49.6 vs. 47.7) and services (50.5 vs. 46.3) sectors showed strong recoveries, with the latter returning to marginal growth while new orders continued to fall and weighed on output. Backlogs of work decreased sharply and at steep rates as firms comfortably handled both new and existing contracts. Employment fell modestly as firms cut staffing amid spare capacity and weak demand. Business confidence remained below trend and lower than in September. On the price front, input cost inflation remained elevated despite softening slightly from September’s three-month high, while output charge inflation strengthened as selling prices were raised solidly but were limited by competitive pressures.