澳元/日元重申看涨倾向，日本央行认为不急于再次加息。由于交易员重新评估了日本央行的最新经济预测和政策立场，日元扭转了早些时候在欧洲市场的涨势。尽管日本央行对通胀最终与2%的目标保持乐观基调，但近期评论和预测抑制了加息预期。

AUD/JPY reasserts bullish bias, as BoJ seen in no rush to hike again.Yen reversed earlier gains in the European session as traders reassessed the Bank of Japan's latest economic projections and policy stance. While BoJ maintained its upbeat tone on inflation eventually aligning with the 2% target, near-term commentary and projections have dampened rate hike expectations.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数下跌0.2%，收于8743点，结束了三个交易日的连胜，因为铜矿商的下跌抵消了科技股的反弹。美国总统特朗普出人意料地宣布对铜管和电线征收低于预期的50%关税后，铜价暴跌18%。作为回应，重量级矿商必和必拓下跌2.4%，至两周低点，而力拓在公布上半年喜忧参半的业绩后下跌3.3%。黄金股也下跌了近2%，北方之星领跌（-2.6%）。与此同时，科技股上涨1.3%，创下历史新高，Wisetech和Xero分别上涨1%和0.6%，在强劲的盈利业绩中与美国同行持平。在经济数据方面，6月份零售额增长1.2%，超出预期，创下2022年3月以来的最大涨幅，市场情绪有所改善，而建筑审批量连续第二个月增长11.9%。本月，该指数上涨2.4%，为第四个月上涨。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to close at 8,743 on Thursday, snapping its three-session win streak, as declines in copper miners offset a rally in tech stocks. Copper prices plunged 18% after US President Trump’s surprise move, announcing a narrower-than-expected 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring. In response, heavyweight miner BHP dropped 2.4% to a two-week low, while Rio Tinto fell 3.3% after posting mixed H1 results. Gold stocks also declined nearly 2%, led by Northern Star (-2.6%). Meanwhile, technology stocks rallied 1.3% to a record high, with Wisetech and Xero up 1% and 0.6%, respectively, tracking their US peers amid strong earnings results. On the economic data front, sentiment improved after a 1.2% jump in retail sales for June beating forecasts and marking the strongest rise since March 2022—while building approvals surged 11.9% for a second straight monthly gain. Over the month, the index gained 2.4%, its fourth monthly increase.

随着投资者消化零售销售数据，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率徘徊在4.27%左右。澳大利亚6月份零售额同比增长1.2%，超过了0.4%的增长预期，创下2022年3月以来的最大月度增长。尽管数据显示家庭支出复苏的迹象，并支持澳大利亚储备银行对货币政策的谨慎态度，但这对下个月降息的预期没有太大影响。投资者继续对8月份降息25个基点的可能性进行定价，预计到年底利率将触底至3.10%左右。这些预期在很大程度上受到最近疲软的通胀报告的支撑，该报告显示，潜在通胀正逐渐向澳大利亚储备银行2.5%的目标迈进。相比之下，美联储在最近的政策会议上保持利率稳定，并没有就9月份普遍预期的降息提供任何指导。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 4.27% as investors digested the retail sales data. Australian retail sales rose 1.2% year-on-year in June, surpassing forecasts of a 0.4% increase and marking the largest monthly gain since March 2022. While the data showed signs of a revival in household spending and supported the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious approach to monetary policy, it did not have much impact on expectations for a rate cut next month. Investors continue to price in a near-certain chance of a 25bps cut in August, with rates seen bottoming out near 3.10% by year-end. These expectations are largely anchored by the recently soft inflation report, which showed that underlying inflation is gradually moving toward the RBA’s 2.5% target. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve held rates steady at its latest policy meeting and offered no guidance on a widely anticipated cut in September.

周四，澳元走强至0.645美元以上，试图从前一交易日超过1%的跌幅反弹，结束连续五个交易日的下跌。乐观的经济数据支撑了这一回升，其中6月份零售额增长1.2%，这是自2022年3月以来最强劲的月度增长，远高于0.4%的增长预期。建筑审批量也飙升了11.9%，这是自2023年5月以来的最大增幅，也是连续第二个月增长。然而，由于澳大利亚储备银行谨慎的温和前景，澳元仍面临压力。澳大利亚储备银行副行长豪瑟表示，第二季度通胀数据“非常受欢迎”，与预期一致，但强调央行仍持谨慎态度，依赖数据。随着通胀降至四年低点，失业率上升至4.3%，市场预计8月12日降息的可能性为95%。在其他地方，中国的工厂活动收缩幅度超过预期，限制了人民币的涨幅。

The Australian dollar strengthened to above $0.645 on Thursday, attempting to rebound from an over 1% loss in the prior session to end a five-session losing streak. The upturn was supported by upbeat economic data, led by a 1.2% jump in retail sales for June—the strongest monthly gain since March 2022 and well above expectations of a 0.4% rise. Building approvals also surged 11.9%, the strongest increase since May 2023 and the second straight month of growth. However, the Aussie remained under pressure by a cautiously dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said the Q2 inflation data was “very welcome” and aligned with expectations, but emphasized the central bank remains cautious and data-dependent. With inflation easing to a four-year low and unemployment rising to 4.3%, markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a rate cut on August 12. Elsewhere, China’s factory activity contracted more than expected, limiting gains for the Chinese-proxy currency.